1 2 Previous Next

Liveable City List

Posted by Martijn Moerbeek Aug 31, 2011

Reposted from the BBC website:


"The Australian city of Melbourne has beaten  Canada's Vancouver to the title of world's most liveable city for the  first time in almost a decade. Vancouver has topped the annual Global Liveability Survey since 2002, but this year fell to third behind Vienna.


Overall, Australian and Canadian cities did well, capturing seven of the top 10 spots. Harare, Port Moresby and Dhaka occupied the bottom of the table. The cities were assessed in five categories - stability, healthcare, culture and environment, education and infrastructure. Vancouver missed out on the top spot because its infrastructure score had fallen due to periodic closures of a key motorway. London was ranked 53, out of 140 cities surveyed. Honolulu, at 26, was the top US city.


The Economist Intelligence Unit, which carried out the  survey, said scores in Europe had been pushed slightly down by the  eurozone crisis, while the Arab Spring had affected ratings across the  Middle East and North Africa. "Australia, with a low population density and relatively low  crime rates, continues to supply some of the world's most liveable  cities," report editor Jon Copestake said in a statement. "Despite the rising cost of living driven by the strong  Australian dollar, these cities offer a range of factors to make them  highly attractive." Melbourne was a joint winner with Vancouver in 2002.


Mayor Robert Doyle said he was "absolutely delighted" with the news. ''For the first time in a decade we are now officially ranked  number one,'' he said. ''When you think the strong Aussie dollar  militates against this, this is even more impressive." Cities were scored out of 100 and the report noted that the top 10 cities were only separated by 1.8 percentage points."

 

MOST LIVEABLE CITIES 2011

1: Melbourne

2: Vienna

3: Vancouver

4: Toronto

5: Calgary

6: Sydney

7: Helsinki

8: Perth

9: Adelaide

10: Auckland


References:

- Global Liveablity Report

- BBC Website, "Melbourne edges out Vancouver to top liveable city list"

814 Views 0 Comments Permalink Tags: education, environment, cities, infrastructure, report, healthcare, research, liveablity, survey, stability, culture

There are many benefits tied to living in large cities, not to mention the benefits that such large cities provide to the larger economies that they reside in. Many of these benefits are derived from the principle of economies of scale which holds that there are cost advantages that an entity obtains due to expansion. Indeed, the more concentrated industrial and service sectors in urban environments develop higher productivity levels, whilst the provision of goods and services in highly populated areas is significantly cheaper than in the rural counterparts. According to McKinsey, “... the cost of delivering basic services such as water, housing, and education can be 30 to 50 percent cheaper in concentrated population centers than it is in sparsely populated areas.” Indeed, large cities attract the most talent, inward investment and are able to create network effects that drive productivity and economic growth.

 

Nevertheless, once a city reaches a certain critical mass, the virtuous circle driven by economies of scale stalls or, even worse, starts to tail of as diseconomies of scale come to the fore. This is the thesis that is at the heart of a recent report titled “Building Globally Competitive Cities: the Key to Latin American Growth” which has been published by the McKinsey Global Institute. The following provides a brief overview of the salient points of this report.

 

The Case of Latin America

The report focuses specifically on Latin America as it is more urbanised than any other region in the developing world with 80 percent of its relatively young population living in cities. Furthermore, the region’s economy is also more concentrated in its largest cities, predominantly because of historical economic policies as many of the region’s countries pursued a centralised model of economic management and opted to protect local industry through trade barriers. According to McKinsey, Latin America’s megacities may very well have been the unintended by-product of import-substitution policies.

 

This major shift from country to town has contributed to much of Latin America’s growth, however, it by now has reaped most of the easy benefits that come from expanding populations. Indeed, like many large cities in both developing and developed countries, the major cities in Latin America are facing housing shortages, significant levels of population, chronic traffic gridlock, alarmingly high levels of crime and all other symptoms of diseconomies of scale. This, in turn, had an impact on economic growth as many of its leading cities have grown more slowly than either their national economies or their midsize peers.

 

Nevertheless, for the region’s largest cities to sustain their growth, they need to be able to address challenges not only to their economic performance but also to the quality of life experienced by their citizens, sustainable resource use, and the strength of their finances and governance. This is even more urgent in Latin America as like many developing countries it is benefiting from a demographic dividend as its working-age population is projected to expand continuously until it peaks in the 2040s at around 470 million potential workers. This creates major opportunities, but also means that the clock is ticking. Indeed, according to McKinsey, “...unless policy makers, businesses, and civil societies in Latin America take steps now to reform and develop their cities and create more productive jobs in the formal economy, the region runs the risk of growing old before it grows rich.”

 

A Shifting Balance in Power

In spite of this, the large cities in the region will continue to be the main contributor to the region’s growth as the 198 large cities (i.e. of more than 200,000 residents) will contribute roughly 65 percent of the region’s growth between 2007 and 2025. However, it must be added that a sizeable proportion of this growth will not be due to economies of scale benefits, but because the large cities will suck up more of the population growth than other regions.

 

What is interesting is that “Although the biggest cities contribute disproportionately to GDP, their relative weight in the economy is declining. Between 2007 and 2025, we expect the region’s top ten cities to display below-average growth in both population and GDP, while the rest of Latin America’s large cities are likely to expand their populations at an above-average rate. These cities are projected to generate almost 40 percent of the region’s overall growth between 2007 and 2025, almost 1.5 times the growth the top ten cities are expected to generate.”

 

The prime reason for this is that the largest cities have, as mentioned before, started to portray signs of diseconomies of scale which have now started to outweigh the scale benefits, thereby diminishing the quality of life they offer and sapping their economic dynamism. The larger cities in Latin America may have reached this point unusually early “...because their institutional, social, and environmental support structures have not kept up with their expanding populations.” Combine this with economic liberalisation which has instigated a shift away from a centralised economic approach, and it becomes clear that medium-sized cities will become a major driver of growth for the future. Indeed, McKinsey forecasts that the top ten cities will portray below average growth leading up to 2025, whilst their smaller neighbours will beat the national averages.

 

Four Dimensions of City Performance

Does this mean the end for mega-cities in Latin America and elsewhere across the globe? Of course not. There are still scale benefits available to large cities within the region, most notably by supporting the growth of high-value enterprises in sectors such as information technology, financial services and R&D as they thrive on the large pools of skilled workers that cities can provide. Nevertheless, in order to seize this opportunity, city governments need to tackle the issues that come with scale and at minimum neutralise the factors that lead to diseconomies of scale and ideally turn them into competitive advantages.

 

In order to paint a picture of such a future, McKinsey analysed the performance of the cities in Latin America on the four dimensions of their Urban Performance Index: Economic Performance, Social Conditions, Sustainable Resource Use and Finance & Governance. In my next blog post I will look at the second half of the McKinsey report that discusses the performance of the cities on these four dimensions, as well as what can strategies can be employed to prevent diseconomies of scale occurring as much as possible.

 

 

References:

897 Views 0 Comments Permalink Tags: growth, finance, governance, smart_cities, megacities, economies_of_scale, diseconomies_of_scale, economic_performance, _social_conditions, sustainable_use_of_resources

As with my previous post (Urban Electronic Nervous Systems) I spent some time gathering my thoughts on intelligent buildings, particularly on why they are needed, what they are, how to go about creating them and what sort of strategies are available for them. In doing so, I have amalgamated some of the research I have done on the knowledge industry, architectural philosophy, high-performance workplaces (expression, efficiency and effectiveness), the convergence between building services and ICT, as well as maintenance regimes. Once more, I have distilled all my thoughts in a brief presentation that hopefully will give you some starting points for creating an intelligent building yourself.

 

Untitled-1.jpg

 

 

Changing Economies, Unchanged Workplaces

In  essence, our economy has changed dramatically over the last 100 years,  but the places that drive these economies (i.e. our workplace) has kept  apace and, as a result, there is now a disconnect between work and  place. This disconnect has serious implications on the effectiveness,  efficiency and expression of our workplace with surprisingly large  negative financial impacts on our economies that these places are meant  to promote and support.

 

It is my belief this is largely because architecture as a profession has focussed too much on the principle of space, at the expense of creating a place by at least partially ignoring the needs of those who occupy these spaces. Nevertheless, organisations also must shoulder some of the blame as they too focussed too much on the concept of space and, what is worse, sought to minimise the financial impact of expensive workspace, thereby ignoring how workspace impacts on human performance and thus has a direct impact on the bottom line. Now, as organisations change even further and collaborative and loose ways of working are becoming more the norm, workplaces need to change with it and support wholly new ways of working.

 

As a starting point, any designer or occupier should ask himself the question what the function of the workplace is. Should the focus be on effectiveness (e.g. increase knowledge transfer), efficiency (e.g. intensify space utilisation) or expression (e.g. enhance corporate branding)? In reality, it will be a combination of these and the weightings will differ by floor, by department or even by work-team, but it is important to make this distinction as it has major implications of the overall design of that particular workspace. Once this has been crystallised, one should consider the four pillars of a good workplace which I have defined as space (i.e. the actual three-dimensional space), systems (i.e. building services, ICT, technology, etc), climate (i.e. lighting, ambiance, noise levels, temperature, humidity, etc) and the environment (i.e. carbon-emissions, energy usage, waste output, etcetera).

 

Systems Integration as a Precursor to Intelligence.

Nevertheless, as is too often the case, these are viewed in isolation which creates a whole raft of issues. For example, one cannot just intensify the space utilisation, as a higher population per square metre will require different air flow rates, which requires different systems that are very likely to have a higher negative impact on the environment. They all link together through the concepts of building physics, infrastructure adaptability and building intelligence. For example, as stated before, the function of a particular space will thus impact on the space itself, the systems that reside in it and the climate that is required for it. Likewise, for a high performance workspace, the climate needs to take into account not only our basic human needs, but also the higher levels such as functional (e.g. task lighting, enclosures, etcetera) and psychological (e.g. ownership, territoriality and belonging).

 

And, finally, the systems (i.e. building, ICT and business systems) need to be linked together appropriately and where needed in order to support the space, climate and environment. In here, I believe that there are three levels of integration possible. Firstly one can speak of integrated building management once the building services are connected to each other so that a building management system (BMS) so that, for example, specific doors open or close in the event of a fire. Secondly, the building services can be integrated with the ICT systems through the use of a converged IP infrastructure, thereby allowing enhanced energy management, integrated software and asset tracking. Finally, all these systems can be linked into business systems such as ERP software so that, for example, the building services shut themselves down for the prescribed period when you book your holidays on the HR system, unless someone books your office whilst you are away for meetings in which case they fire themselves up automatically shortly before the meeting occurs.

 

By linking these three categories of systems together, one can start to establish a virtuous cycle whereby one can manage the assets, monitor their behaviour over time, maximise the performance on the basis of data and thereby mitigate or reduce risks. However, how this is put into practice may differ on the organisational culture, the purpose of the space and the overall vision of the company. An university I worked with for example, wanted system integration to automate certain processes but also preferred a large array of soft policies whereby people rather than systems manage the building as they saw it as part of a learning experience to show people how, for example opening a window during winter impacts on energy usage. On the other hand, a financial institution I spoke with wanted their people to purely focus at the task at hand with minimum disruption of the workspace, so hard policy through systems intervention was the way forward in this case.

 

In any case, some level of systems integration is required between the building, ICT and business systems. But what is more, systems integration is a means to an end and should not become an end in itself. One should identify the prime drivers of the organisation that occupies the space and ask oneself what the key benefits are that systems integration could unlock in order to support these prime drivers. With that in mind it also should be determined who walks away with the profit. There is no use integrating systems when in reality it is the M&E contractor that walks away with the profit, whilst the ultimate client sees little benefit.

 

Towards a High Performance Workplace

At the end of the day, there are no hard and fast rules for a high-performance workplace as each organisation is unique and thus has different requirements for their office. What is clear is that an intelligent building is at the heart of this as it provides a workplace infrastructure that empowers employees through self-regulation, engages employees through collaboration and communication, promotes a strong environmental ethic and sustains organisational agility, all of which are enabled through the adoption and implementation of new technology platforms.

 

I hope that you will find the attached presentation (please see  "attachments" at the bottom of this post) of use and look forward to any  comments that you may have.

1,123 Views 0 Comments Permalink Tags: technology, efficiency, ict, systems, built_environment, expression, effectiveness, space, place, building_services, convergence, hard_policy, soft_policy

Mega Trends: Water

Posted by Martijn Moerbeek Jun 23, 2011

The earth is often referred to as the “blue planet”, as it is the only one known to us that has an extensive supply of liquid water. Nevertheless, in spite of this only 2.53% of the Earth’s surface water is fresh water and less than 1% of it is readily available for human use from watercourses and groundwater as the rest is stored as glaciers and permanent snow cover.1

Water Scarcity

With such a limited supply available to us, it is no wonder that across the world there are boundless issues related to supply or quality of water: “Prolonged spells of low rainfall across regions of Australia are resulting in water use restrictions to domestic, commercial, industrial, and potentially agricultural users. China’s cities face critical water shortages and industrial pollution of water resources. Drought conditions across north-east Africa have devastated millions of livelihoods and impacted the economies of Kenya, Ethiopia, and Sudan. Falling groundwater levels across many agricultural regions are reducing the viability of farming. Thousands of people die each day in Asian and African villages due to restricted access to wholesome water. Increasing levels of microcontaminants such as pesticides and prescription drugs are being monitored in rivers across Europe.”2

In order to determine the stress levels for water in a specific region, most commonly the Falkenmark Indicator is utilised, which “... takes 1700m3 of renewable water resources per person per year (4658 litres/capita/day) as the minimum threshold, based on estimates of water requirements in the household, agricultural, industrial, and energy sectors, and the needs of the environment.”2 With this as a baseline, more than 2bn people are affected by shortages in over 40 countries across the world and by 2050 at least one in four people will be living in a country affected by chronic or recurring freshwater shortages. The UNDP estimates that in 2004 some 1.1 billion lived more than 1km from the nearest safe water source. Worse still, 2.6 billion people, roughly 40% of the world’s population, had no access to improved sanitation and it is generally accepted that these figures are in all likelihood an underestimation of the problem.3

water-stress-index.png

(Source: Maplecroft, 2011)

Risk analysis firm Maplecroft identified current and future water availability as one of the foremost global challenges and stresses that the dual drivers of climate change and population growth will combine to squeeze water resources and affect the food security of governments across the world, regardless of how water secure they may be today. In fact, many predict that the wars of the future will be fought over the secure supply of water as countries may attempt to “export water stress” by offsetting water shortfalls by acquiring water rich land for agricultural purposes in developing countries to ensure the security of food supplies and decouple themselves from volatility in global food prices.

Nevertheless, although availability and use are of a concern, a broad range of factors affect the state of future water resources such as demographic (population structure, population growth, urbanization, pressures for migration from developing to developed countries), technological (information technology, biotechnology, water use efficiency, water pollution, new drought/pest/salt-resistant crops, sanitation, desalination), social (lifestyles and cultural preferences, poverty, economic inequality), environmental (committed future climate change, water-related disease, salinization, exhaustion and pollution of surface and groundwater, integrity and health of aquatic ecosystems) and governance: (institutions, legislation, market dominance, power structure, conflicts, globalization).4

The hidden cost of water

And this is important as fresh water is not only required for human consumption nor does it only have an impact on our physical wellbeing. Whilst very few regions of the world have insufficient available water resources for domestic demands, it has an indirect impact on many other basic needs as 70% of global water use is in agriculture to provide food and resources and 20% in industry.2

The linkages between these three areas of usage can be understood by looking at Maslow’s “hierarchy of needs” “... which is a psychological theory of motivation based on the premise that as humans meet “basic needs”, they seek to satisfy successively “higher needs” in a set hierarchy: humans must prioritize base needs, and until the needs at one level are fulfilled, they will not be able to spend time or resources on the next level.”5 At the very base level is our need for water, alongside oxygen, food, rest, protection and reproduction. When these base requirements are not met, humans will prioritise due to necessity and higher level needs such as safety or self-actualisation will not be achieved.

A lack of clean potable water therefore impacts on our health and the UNDP estimates that a lack of these services results in about half the developing world suffering from a health problem at any given time, and accounts for 1.8 million annual child deaths from diarrhea alone.3 However, because not meeting the base requirements in Maslow’s hierarchy of needs limits our ability to achieve the higher level needs, it also directly impacts on economic development. The WHO estimates roughly that lack of access to them costs developing countries US$170 billion per year, or 2.6% of their GDP. Sub- Saharan Africa loses about 5% of GDP, or some US$28.4 billion annually, a figure that exceeded total aid flows and debt relief to the region in 2003.6 Water is thus a powerful motivator.

Cities and Water

In spite of all this evidence, according to a Siemens survey city decision makers did not rate water highly on their agenda.7 When water supply and waste water management were added together, it constituted the third most frequently cited infrastructure issues that cities were facing (8%), although this was far behind transport as a perceived challenge (35%). It must be said that there is a clear difference between mature and emerging cities, with emerging cities ranking it significantly higher into second place (13%), whilst in mature cities it ranks significantly lower on the list of infrastructure challenges (3%).

While cities need ample, secure, uninterrupted supplies of safe, clean drinking water for their residents, this demand must be balanced with the equally important requirement of water for agriculture, commerce and industry, recreational uses and the environment. The irony is that most cities experience water crises not because there is an overall physical shortage of water, but because either the quality or quantity is inappropriately managed. Indeed, any industry that mislays 25 to 30% of its product in the process of delivering it might reasonably be thought to have a problem.8 Yet that, according to the World Bank, is the case for the world’s water companies. Some cities like Manila even lose 59 per cent of its treated water as it has an inefficient infrastructure and suffers from downright water theft. In 2006 leaks were costing the global economy $14bn a year.8

The primary issue that most cities appear to face is older and obsolete infrastructure, an issue that is even more prevalent in mature cities in Europe and North America who have benefited from safe water for over 100 years yet now face the difficulty of maintaining these ageing infrastructures. Similarly, in transitional and emerging cities water pollution and quality ranked significantly higher. Technology can have a part to play in this as sensors can help to identify when and where there is a leakage. Existing systems, however, have thresholds build into them to avoid false alarms, but the price is that small leaks go undetected and thus unrepaired, which can lead to larger leaks later on. Intelligent sensor networks with advanced analytics can help to significantly bring down the amount of leakages. Indeed, a survey by Metropolis strongly suggests that many cities have only vague estimates of how much water they harvest, where it is used and how much it costs to harvest, treat and distribute.9

The private sector has a clear role to play in this. Although public utilities provide around 90% of the developing world’s water and there are obstacles to privatisation of the supply of water – most notably the high upfront investment costs and subsequent monopoly structures which limit competition – there are clear signs that the private sector is moving more into the management of publicly owned water provision to improve efficiency. Nevertheless, any renovation and investment is unlikely to revolutionize how cities address water needs. Water stakeholders expect that the emphasis in their cities in the next five to ten years will be slightly more on improved efficiency than new plants and facilities.7

Water Governance

In reality, the water crisis currently faced in parts of the world is essentially a crisis of governance: a failure to govern regional water resources sustainably. Water governance is thus the driver of change that will increasingly affect society over the forthcoming decades. Whilst there is equality between the basic needs we all have for water, access is significantly dissimilar. As Winkle describes: “Societies across the entire spectrum of economic development are facing social, economic, and political challenges in how to govern water more effectively. Put simply, in most parts of the world there are enough water resources to satisfy the personal needs of households and the requirements of industry and agriculture without excessively impacting on the natural environment. But through mismanagement, the water is not made available to those who need it. This situation is set to become increasingly critical as pressures on the world’s limited freshwater resources increase.”2 The question is, what choices will cities make in order to address this and how will they balance out the needs for potable, agricultural and industrial water?

 

References:

  1. SHIKLOMANOV,      IA, and RODDA, JC, Editors. World water resources at the      beginning of the twenty-first century.International Hydrology Series.      Cambridge University Press,2003.
  2. WINKLE, P.      Water as a Driver for Change, the Arup Journal, 1/2007.
  3. UNDP, Human      Development Report, 2006
  4. WORLD WATER COUNCIL.      World Water Vision: making water everybody’s business. Editors: WJ      Crosgrove and FR Rijsberman. Earthscan Publications Ltd, 2000.
  5. MASLOW, AH. A      theory of human motivation. Psychological Review, 50,      pp370-396, 1943.
  6. WHO (World      Health Organization), “Economic and Health Effects of Increasing Coverage      of Low Cost Water and Sanitation Interventions”
  7. Megacity      Challenges, Siemens, 2010
  8. Pipe Dreams,      the Economist, June 4th-10th, 2011
  9. Enhancing and      Maintaining Water Quality of Mertropolisises, Metropolis, 2002
927 Views 0 Comments Permalink Tags: water, governance, water_quality, mega_trends, water_scarcity

I have been gathering my thoughts recently on the topic of smart and connected communities (S+CC) and given that my mind works best with graphical representations and in a structured manner, I tend to distil this into a presentational format and then start stripping out elements until I arrive at something that is clear, concise and can be understood by even a layman. In design and other aspects of life I have always been a firm believer of “less is more”, as with a clear baseline or framework you can over time start adding elements back in order to create additional levels of complexity for when the need arises.

 

As a result, the attached is what I arrived at. Please note that this by no means covers all the aspects of S+CC as it is such a vast and far-reaching topic that it will be impossible to cover all aspects sufficiently in a succinct presentation. As such, it is more intended for people who are new to the concept of smart and connected communities, or those who wish to explain it to such an audience.

 

uins.jpg

 

I have attached notes to the slides, but in essence the core of the presentation is that our economies are shifting from manufacturing to knowledge-based industries and that cities, as the driving engines of such industries, need to change with it and have done so historically. However, we are now at an inflection point where counter-intuitively cities are in many respects the most sustainable living areas, but concurrently have major adverse effects on social, economic and environmental levels. In order to change this, we can “instrumentalise” cities and in doing so sense what they are feeling, hearing or thinking, relay this data and relate it contextually so we can act on it and improve its performance.

 

However, in order to do so we need to connect the different systems that comprise a system and create a “system of systems” fork work, leisure and services by utilising intelligent infrastructures that include pervasive sensing, the cloud, service orientated architecture, mobilised user-centric services and social networks. In doing so we can create a business model that is beneficial to the public and private sectors, as well as the citizens and knowledge workers that occupy a world-leading city. In order to achieve this, one can target various levels of implementation starting with creating the required networking infrastructure, which can lead to enhanced content and communications, improved building intelligence and thus performance, and finally revolutionising the the way public services are delivered.

 

Before a city can embark on this journey they need to decide what they want to be, adopt policies for knowledge growth, optimise around the citizens of the city and, finally, apply ICT to improve core city systems. In doing so, they may very well find that some of their services no longer fall within their vision and need to be shed, or that some core competences for their new vision are missing and need to be created or acquired. Partnering with the private sector is crucial in this, but the private sector will need to create an eco-system itself as well as no single company can deliver a smart and connected community as a single entity. With such partnerships in place, a city will need to look at its policies and regulations to ensure that they allow the vision to materialise, create the technology infrastructure to support it and ensure long-term adoption of the new technologies and services amongst its constituents. In doing so, a city can promote the environment, foster a social city and boost economic growth, all at the same time without being mutually exclusive.

 

I hope that you will find the attached presentation (please see "attachments" at the bottom of this post) of use and look forward to any comments that you may have.

1,043 Views 0 Comments Permalink Tags: technology, sustainability, social_networks, citizens, smart_cities, smart_connected_communities, presentation, business_model, building_intelligence, _public_services

The BBC recently broadcast the second episode in a fascinating three-part series called “Andrew Marr’s Megacities” which highlights the joys and wonders of living in such a mega city, but also the challenges that it brings.

 

“In the first episode, Andrew looks at how people live in five of the world's biggest megacities: London, one of the world's oldest megacities; Dhaka, the world's fastest-growing megacity; Tokyo, the largest megacity on Earth; Mexico City, one of the most dangerous cities in the world; and Shanghai, arguably the financial capital of the world. Andrew compares the sleek skyscrapers and rapid modernisation of Shanghai to the colourful street culture and geographic sprawl of Mexico City. He spends a night living in a one-room shack in Dhaka's toughest slum, taking his turn to fetch water, cook and clean; and he rents a friend in the efficient and high-tech, but alienating, city of Tokyo.”

 

The second episode focuses on safety and security, which are “...two of the biggest challenges faced by each and every metropolis. Whether earthquake, terrorism, flood or just crime, it's the geology, politics and social makeup of the megacities that make them some of the most profitable and dangerous places to live. Andrew starts in Mexico City, the kidnap capital of the world. The compactness of the megacity often means that the super rich must live closely beside the super poor. Andrew finds out how evasive driving and bulletproof vests are protecting Mexico's super rich and middle classes. In London, he joins a Metropolitan Police riot unit on a practice routine, and hangs out with boy racers in Tokyo. And he meets the canine helpers responsible for saving lives in the event of terrorist attack.”

 

These episode can be viewed using the BBC’s i-player until late June 2011, although viewing restrictions may apply dependant on the country you are based in.

1,075 Views 0 Comments Permalink Tags: security, safety, challenges, modernisation, documentary, mega-cities, bbc

The Scissor Effect

Posted by Martijn Moerbeek Jun 8, 2011

That the internet has garnered an explosion of data generation and sharing that has been unprecedented in the history of mankind is a well known fact. If anything, this growth rate will only accelerate in years to come according to the latest visual networking index by Cisco1, which forecasts that we will enter the Zettabyte era by 2015 driven by a proliferation of mobile-ready devices, widespread video consumption and an increase in devices connected to the IP network.

Mobile, Video and non-PC devices

According to Cisco, traffic from wireless devices will exceed traffic from wired devices by 2015 as mobile data traffic will increase 26 times between 2010 and 2015 with a staggering compounded average growth rate of 92 percent. Indeed, it is forecast that global mobile data traffic will grow three times faster than fixed IP traffic from 2010 to 2015, reaching a total of 8 percent of total IP traffic in 2015.

Internet video is now 40 percent of consumer internet traffic and will reach 61 percent by the end 2015, not including the amount of video exchanged through P2P sharing. To put this in perspective, it would take 5 years to watch the amount of video that will cross global IP networks every second in 2015. Mobile video is projected by the study to represent 66 percent of all mobile data traffic by 2014, increasing 66-fold from 2009 to 2014-the highest growth rate of any mobile data application tracked in the Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Forecast.

The number of devices connected to IP networks will be twice as high as the global population in 2015. Because of this increase in devices, plus the enhanced capabilities of such devices, IP traffic per capita will reach 11 gigabytes in 2015, up from 3 gigabytes per capita in 2010. What is more, a growing amount of internet traffic is originating from so-called non-PC devices: Annual global IP traffic will reach the zettabyte threshold (966 exabytes or nearly 1 zettabyte) by the end of 2015. In 2015, global IP traffic will reach 966 exabytes per year or 80.5 exabytes per month. By 2014, there could be over 5 billion personal devices connecting to mobile networks – and billions more machine-to-machine nodes.

Traffic vs Revenues

The result of this growth in the number of devices and the generated traffic is not only that we are running out of IPv4 addresses and that the adoption of IPv6 is going to be vital, it also places excruciating pressures on the internet infrastructure. Of all stakeholder groups, mobile operators are more aware than anyone else of this threat which they generally refer to as “the Scissor Effect” given the forecast interplay between costs and revenues.

Standard economic theory informs us that if costs rise faster than revenues, eventually profits will turn into a loss. When charted this creates a "scissor-effect" whereby the line drawn for costs overtakes that for revenues, creating a loss-making situation. This inflection point is predominantly determined by a paradigm shift whereby mobile broadband becomes dominant at the expense of voice, with the former being one of the aforementioned primer drivers for the traffic growth forecasts.

scissoreffect.jpg

Fact or Fiction?

Because it is an undeniable fact that total traffic volumes will grow over time, which will place significant financial pressures on operators who need to upscale and update their networks, the scissor graph has almost been taken as the gospel by the telecommunications industry. However, will this effect actually materialise? After all, in order for the traffic curve to bend upwards and the revenue curve to flatten out, two prime assumptions are being made: that average traffic per subscriber will always increase and that average revenue per user (ARPU) will always decrease.

Nevertheless, there are organisations – such as Ericsson2 – that are stating that the scissor effect is a myth. According to them, there is evidence that price levels can and will stabilise and that the revenue curve will thus more or less follow the shape of the subscriber growth curve. Indeed, average data volumes per user will flatten out in due course according to them as, firstly, at a certain growth rate new subscribers added to the network will consume less than the average user and, secondly, operators have learned and started to use various traffic management methods to limit usage. Provided that there is a certain growth rate, mobile broadband begins to attract more “normal” and “low” users, which will go hand in hand with a drop in average traffic per subscriber.

Furthermore, in deviance of the scissor graph, Ericsson believes that traffic does not equal cost. In reality, the cost will keep going down as network utilisation increases and so the cost per GB goes down hand-in-hand as traffic volumes increase. Network utilisation will therefore become a key requirement for mobile operators, which is driven by strategic choices regarding peak rates and coverage. According to calculations done by Ericsson, capacity is not a major issue though as they state that capacity can be doubled at a cost per GB of EUR 0.1 to 0.2.

To summarise: “We have already shown that with strong subscriber growth, we do not necessarily see a gap between subscriber and traffic growth. We also see that if ARPU is stabilising, traffic and revenue grow at an equal pace, and the cost per GB goes down. This means that at least for the earlier phases of mobile broadband, where subscribers are still added, we can easily survive or rather profit from the current traffic growth.”2

Mitigation Strategies

Nevertheless, on the longer term there will be a point that mobile operators’ costs will exceed revenues. Juniper Research forecasts that point will happen within the next four years.3 Currently, mobile operators are already struggling to place themselves favourably in a market that is dominated by handset vendors and operating system providers, but their margins will be under dramatic pressure if they do not take actions to address data traffic costs and if their lack of planning results in inefficient networks with low utilisation rates.

Nevertheless, it is not all doom and gloom as every crisis also offers opportunities. Mobile operators can indeed employ a number of strategies that will mitigate the aforementioned trends.

Firstly, as stated before, network efficiency will be absolutely key as it allows CAPEX to be used most efficiently in order to alleviate OPEX increases related with boosting network capacity, buying additional spectrum, and rolling out new infrastructure to meet the rocketing demand for mobile data. Another supply-side mechanism that can be employed can be consumption caps or deep-packet inspection to throttle certain unwanted services that place a disproportionately large burden on the network such as P2P file-sharing.

Obviously, the question that arises is whether these approaches are customer-friendly, and whether they will attract the strong subscriber growth and subsequent network utilisation rates that are required to survive in this new climate. An alternative approach could be based on intelligence, whereby services are tailored to different customer types using different scenarios. What is required for this is the establishment of a network intelligence infrastructure that can provide the data, in real-time, that is required to make this a reality.

On this basis different tariff plans can be created, which may or may not include unlimited usage packages. A basic premise of the scissor effect is flat rates will not be sustainable and that users will have to pay per GB, however, according to the Telecoms Europe website: “Some operators, with the newest, most efficient networks, have found that flat-rate "unlimited" tariffs are profitable. However, many operators are attempting different models to support the revenue part of the profitability equation.”

Now, how mobile operators will bring their services to market – or if they will be even supplanted by over-the-top providers, handheld manufacturers or other new entrants – matters to smart + connected communities as ubiquitous internet access is a fundamental principle for such communities. It is my firm belief that mobile broadband will be the growth platform for the future and that business mechanics will follow suit, although it is too early to tell in exactly what shape or form.

References:

  1. “Visual Networking Index”, Cisco, 2011
  2. “Mobile Broadband – Busting the Myth of the Scissor Effect”, Ericsson Business Review #2, 2010
  3. Wood, N. “Mobile Operator Costs to Exceed Revenues in Four Years”, Total Telecom, 2011
814 Views 0 Comments Permalink Tags: video, cost, telecommunications, smart_connected_communities, revenue, scrisso_effect, mobile_operators, network_efficiency, mobile_broadband

If we look at standard theory for competition, then Porter contends that by positioning a company to either achieve the lowest cost position or differentiate from the competition they are able to achieve sustainable competitive advantage in the market place. To be sustainable (e.g. long-lasting, rather than environmentally, socially or economically sustainable), competencies need to be developed that provide benefit to clients, access to new markets and are difficult to imitate according to Hamel & Prahalad. However, before a core competence can be achieved, a company needs to attain parity with the competition in order to create legitimate and credible service offerings. These points of parity are necessary requirements for a service offering, whereas a point of difference would provide brand association and the opportunity for sustained competitive advantage. In my previous post (“Competitive Environmental Strategies”) I argued a number of strategies that are available to achieve precisely that.

 

Sustainability & Economic Performance

Companies are now increasingly latching onto this notion that sustainability can provide them with either differentiation or help them to lower their costs. Recognition that environmental management could create competitive advantage was first argued by Porter and van der Linde1. Their hypothesis was that environmental legislation stimulates competitiveness. Through researching a number of case studies, they were able to show that companies that accepted the challenge set by tough legislation were more profitable than those who spend resources on challenging the legislation in court. They concluded that legislation provides an incentive to companies to invest in research and development. This produces “innovation offsets” by creating new products or greater efficiencies, lowering the cost of meeting legislation and leading to enhanced competitiveness.

 

This is underpinned by a recent study of Accenture2 and the United Nations which found that “... the 50 companies ranked highest in sustainability leadership (based on external factors such as inclusion in commonly used sustainability indexes or adherence to voluntary sustainability agreements) also outperformed their peers in terms of shareholder returns.” Nevertheless, they are quick to add that these are correlations rather than clear evidence of causality. In other words, the link between sustainability and high performance has not yet been solidly established. The link between competitiveness and environmental sustainability has been developed by many authors but a unique relationship has yet to be empirically proven because:

 

  1. Other factors may affect competitiveness and, therefore, environmental performance must be isolated for a true relationship to be determined;
  2. Environmental impacts may not necessarily occur in the short term and therefore studies need to be undertaken over a long period of time;
  3. There are many measures of environmental sustainability which are not easily defined in one clear statement;
  4. Most studies proving a link between positive environmental management and positive financial performance have been based on publicly produced company information which cannot always be relied upon as a measure of competitiveness in a particular marketplace.

Nevertheless, Madsen and Ulhoi3 tried to address these issues in their study over a five year period to see how trends in the adoption of environmental management have influenced the competitiveness of Danish companies. This produced the first definitive link between the two factors. In particular, the research highlights that realising competitive advantage from an opportunity takes time and that businesses need to identify opportunities in advance of realising the financial benefit.

 

Barriers to be Overcome

Most business leaders understand this intuitively as according to the Accenture-UN research, 93 percent of CEOs surveyed globally see sustainability as important to their companies’ future success. However, likewise there is a disparity between desire and actual execution as CEO’s are caught between a rock and a hard place, forcing them to make tough decisions between the long-term perspective of sustainability and the near-term pressures of the bottom line. Furthermore, “investments in sustainability today are seldom reflected in next quarter’s earnings announcement. This misalignment, which is, of course, a function of basic financial performance analysis, must be reconciled before sustainability can be integrated and embedded in operations—that is, before sustainability becomes a truly integral part of what it means to be a high-performance business.” The report identified the top barriers to implementation as being the complexity of implementing strategy across functions, competing strategic priorities and a lack of recognition from the financial markets.

 

barriers.jpg

 

More specifically related to the built environment, a study by lawyers Taylor Wessing4 concluded that organisations are facing a number of challenges before they are in a position to realise and communicate the value related to sustainability. In order to move beyond the status of quo of the tension between short-term financial needs and long-term sustainability needs, they recommended that the following steps be taken:

 

  1. Only if measurable value, typically economic, is seen as a direct benefit of sustainability will organisations be incentivised to go further than required by regulations;
  2. Accepted industry methods and tools need to enable organisations to make clear value comparisons between sustainable buildings. This is likely to extend to the development of standard methods of presenting and reporting the results of these standardised measurements.
  3. Established industry bodies will play a vital role in the measurement of green value. The RICS guidance to valuers on how to incorporate the sustainable aspects of a building into a valuation is evidence of this starting to happen;
  4. An ability to understand and demonstrate the impact of sustainability on brand equity would be desirable;
  5. We expect that the market will noticeably move further to reflect a ‘brown tariff’ on buildings which are not regarded as sustainable;
  6. Innovation in building design and use is essential if we are to see continued progress of the sustainability agenda. Innovation will only continue if it can be demonstrated that the benefits significantly outweigh the costs.

 

Only by overcoming these barriers can organisations and the built environment become truly sustainable. Key to this is the concept of value. Both Taylor Wessing and Accenture are very clear in this: the economic benefit of sustainability needs to be quantified, measured and recognised in order to instigate a shift from the short to the long term and from the financial bottom line to a broader sustainable focus.

 

 

References

  1. Porter, M.E. and van der Linde, C. (1995) “Towards a New Conception of the Environment-Competitiveness Relationship”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Fall 9 (4).
  2. “Can Business Do Well by Doing Good?”, Accenture, 2011.
  3. Madsen, H. And Ulhoi, J.P. (2003) “Have Trends in Corporate Environmental Management Influenced Companies’ Competitiveness?”, Greener Management International (44) 75-88
  4. “Hitting the Green Wall.. and Beyond”, Taylor Wessing, 2010.
574 Views 0 Comments Permalink Tags: green, sustainability, challenges, built_environment

In my two previous posts on environmental sustainability (“Sustainability and the Built Environment” and “Doing Well by Doing Good”) I touched upon the topics of what it entails, what drives it, what costs are involved and what value the various stakeholder groups can derive from it. Of course, the question that still lingers in the back of the head of many is if sustainability is actually here to stay – in spite of the overwhelming evidence that supports this notion – and, if so, what sort of strategies companies can adopt in order to not only be a good corporate citizen but also benefit from a positive stance towards the environment.

Fad or Reality?

Over the last years the economic pressures on the construction industry have increased. It is during these periods that inefficiencies in business processes and practises are cruelly exposed. The last decade has been a boom time for the industry in most industrialised countries and as a result there is still a culture where change is not accepted; “We have always done it this way and it seems to work fine”.

Already there are signs that support this notion with regards to sustainability. The National Federation of Builders reported recently that over half of projects tendered did not put in place conditions with regards to sustainable development. As such, during times of recession it becomes a very real danger that contractors are being asked to do the minimum possible to achieve the standards as set out by legislation.

It is evident that in a recession immediate cheapness will win out, even if that is slightly irrational. In spite of this, sustainability will remain high on the agenda for many clients. After all, some sustainability measures have no or a short payback period. For instance, the right thermal envelope for a typical office building can save money on heating and cooling costs very quickly, and may even cost less than a traditional glass curtain wall. This is immediately attractive. Other measures are required by planners: the recession will not change this. As a result, there will be a keen search for green measures that provide clear payback in a limited period, and where that payback can be easily channelled to the party taking the green decision. This will mostly affect specification, rather than contract terms.

In spite of this short-term pressure on sustainable development, as the economy picks up, so will a desire for ‘green’ buildings. Firstly, there has been a growing consensus globally that financial stimuli in the economy should contain a green element, including funding for making buildings more energy efficiently, tax breaks for renewable energy firms, etcetera. Secondly, governments globally are continuing to legislate to reduce carbon emissions. Thirdly, as rating systems, certification and other benchmarking becomes more commonplace, there is a growing amount of research which supports the business case for sustainable property and many clients are already starting to understand these benefits, as outlined previously.

At the end of the day, climate change is a much bigger, longer-term issue than the recession. Governments have treaty commitments to reduce carbon emissions. Despite the recession, it is expected that further sustainability and climate-change regulations will affect buildings. The question is the timescale, not the political will. Those companies that use the recession as an opportunity to re-positioning themselves as movers and shakers for the sustainability agenda are more likely to emerge from the recession in a position of strength in terms of competitive advantage.

Me-too or market leader?

Whilst the recession has certainly put a brake on some aspects of sustainability, all the signs are pointing towards a future where sustainability will become the norm in everything that we do as individuals, organisations and communities.

This will most certainly also shape how sustainability is perceived by for-profit organisations. Traditionally, it was thought that environmental legislation brought about a balancing of the negative environmental impact of markets at a cost to business. This meant that any attempt by a business to improve environmental performance was a cost to the business and, therefore, a reduction in profitability.

However, more recently management thinkers like Porter and van der Linde started to argue that environmental management could create competitive advantage in the market place. They concluded that legislation provides an incentive to companies to invest in research and development, which provides ‘innovation offsets’ by creating new products or greater efficiencies, lowering the cost of meeting legislation and leading to enhanced competitiveness. Moreover, companies can gain a first mover advantage in markets and obtain supernatural profits by creating barriers to entry through industry standards.

In particular, being in a relatively "dirty" industry such as construction, service providers will gain competitive advantage through a strong emphasis on environmental performance. The opportunity to gain competitive advantage is even further increased when there is uncertainty in the general business environment, complexity in the issue and rivalry in the market place. Sustainability in the construction industry certainly meets these criteria, yet most companies focus on the low hanging fruits in order to achieve the threshold competency in the market and thus exceeding legislation could become a differentiator or even a core competence creating sustainable competitive advantage either through enhanced reputation (external perspective) or waste minimisation (internal perspective).

In order to optimise the economic returns on investments and subsequently transform them into sources of competitive advantage, five generic strategies have been identified:

competitiveenvironmentalstrategies.jpg

The Eco-efficiency strategy is basically doing more with less and thereby lowering the environmental impact. Eco-Efficiency implies the complete elimination of waste in corporate processes. By optimizing the overall use of resources, such as the reduction of energy consumption and waste, companies can also reduce the costs associated with them and, consequently, become more competitive. Eco-efficiency is based on lowering costs in internal operations and has inherent risks as the efficient management of costs and risks is really a part of operational effectiveness, not strategy. Everyone will soon be doing it, so it becomes a license to operate rather than a longer term source of value.

Beyond Compliance Leadership requires that companies go above and beyond what their competitors are doing. Such strategies can allow companies to spin their investments in greening internal processes into external reputational advantage, for example by joining Green Clubs. In doing so, firms can reap value in terms of brand and reputation, as well as influencing standards and regulations, though the primary value is defensive, in deflecting criticism and antagonistic campaigns, and deterring regulation.

Eco-branding involves finding a point of differentiation based on the ecological characteristics of certain products. It is based on differentiation in the final product market through various types of eco-labels, such as the FSC labels on wood products or carbon labels, though there are significant methodological problems in developing reliable and meaningful labels, and consumers are confused or indifferent.

In contrast, Environmental Cost Leadership entails selling products with good environmental performance but with an equally attractive price proposition. If one has to sell products with good environmental performance and can only compete on a price-basis, a company not only has to rethink the way it designs a product but also change the way it sells and the way the product is consumed, which requires a substantial amount of innovation.

Finally, Sustainable Value Innovation (SVI) entails re-shaping the industry through the creation of differential value for costumers and contribution to society in both reduced costs and environmental impact. The aim of this strategy is not to out-perform the competition in an existing industry but to create a new market space, thereby making the competition irrelevant by giving the consumer more value per product/service at lower costs.

Which one of these strategies your organisation should adopt depends on a whole set of circumstances that are specific to your organisation such as the industry you work in, the pressure that this industry is under, the demands that customers are placing on you, in how far legislation is driving you to adopt an environmentally friendly approach, the scope for differentiation, the level of impact that your organisation has on the environment, etcetera. One size does not fit all and although sustainable value innovation is in a way the holy grail, it will not be attainable for all organisations, nor should – at least on the short term – every organisation aspire to achieve this.

716 Views 0 Comments Permalink Tags: sustainability, built_environment, environmental_strategies, fad

In my previous blog post ("Sustainability & the Built Environment") I discussed what environmental sustainability is, how it is being pushed by governments and whether there is a cost premium attached to it from a construction perspective. The next question is how each group of stakeholders can benefit from sustainable construction and what do they subsequently expect from their supply chain in the built environment? In order to asses this we need to review each of the four stakeholder groups separately: investors, developers, occupiers and constructors.

Investors

For investors the tightening of legislative regulation and policy developments will have asset value implications, as environmentally inefficient buildings will experience increased obsolescence. Investors are also using their portfolios to demonstrate their own commitments to Corporate Social Responsibility through Socially Responsible Investment.

Recent surveys have seen that there is substantial and growing demand for ‘greener’ offices, which will translate itself in shorter void periods for investors, and thus a higher sustained rental income. Furthermore, estimated rental value (ERV) is likely to be higher as benefits that accrue to occupiers, such as lower operating costs and higher staff productivity, will translate itself in higher rents and rental growth. Research in the United States of America has shown that sustainable buildings achieve rents in the top quartile of the market, or 10-20% above average rental rates within any sub-market.

Furthermore, in an environment of increasingly stringent legislation, investing now in good environmental performance should ‘future proof’ the building, leading to reduced depreciation and minimised capital outlays in the form of refurbishments in the future. A ‘green’ office is also likely to affect the willingness to lend and the financial terms proposed by banks/funds providing development or investment finance.

The combination of the benefits outlined above means that the more sustainable building should achieve a higher rent initially, have the potential for stronger rental growth and consequently have a lower risk premium compared to a standard office.

Developers

For developers the build cost premiums associated with sustainable offices, such as achieving the BREEAM (i.e. the UK equivalent of LEED) ‘excellent’ standard, can be minimal (and will fall) as discussed in my previous blog post. The small additional capital investment also brings longer term financial benefits to occupiers, which should justify a higher rent / capital value compared to a less sustainable building.

Nevertheless, a survey by law-firm Taylor Wessing showed that there is a disconnect between what developers think that tenants want, and what they actually want. Over 80% of respondents said that the biggest impediment to sustainability was that developers were not willing to pay the potential premium build cost associated with sustainability, whilst 72% of respondents said that the next biggest hurdle was the focus on short-term build costs rather than whole-life costs. This translates into scepticism amongst many developers who think that tenants would not pay a rent premium for a ‘green’ building, whilst 87% of them said that they would, with over 50% saying they would pay up to 5% more in rent.

Furthermore, the architect Gensler executed a survey where 61% of developers thought that companies are easily dazzled by iconic design, whilst 87% of businesses stated that they would prefer an efficient building over an iconic one.

It is a tremendous oversight that whilst businesses are willing to pay significantly more in rental costs for efficient and sustainable buildings, developers still operate in their historical modus operandi and believe that there is little demand for sustainable buildings, even whilst the evidence to discard this is growing. The ULI, RICS, Savills and GVA Grimley, for example, all concluded that under sustainable development the total market value of buildings per hectare of built land tended to be higher and the residual value, after developer margin, was also higher.

Occupiers

Amongst occupiers demand for environmentally friendly offices is increasing, particularly in light of higher energy costs and a growing commitment to the notion of Corporate Social Responsibility and socially responsible investment. In a global CORENET/Jones Lang LaSalle survey 69% of companies stated that sustainability is a critical business issue.

At this moment in time the majority of occupiers pursue strategies that focus on recycling or energy efficiency. In a survey by the architect Gensler 59% of property directors responded that they believe that spiralling energy costs over the next decade will increase their organisation’s operating costs significantly. Sustainability has a key part to play in this. Research on 60 LEED buildings in the USA, for example, has shown that green buildings use between 25-30% less energy than conventional buildings. A 20-year Net Present Value analysis executed by GVA Grimley showed that energy savings alone can pay back the initial cost premium associated with most sustainability upgrades.

Other benefits include the optimisation of operational efficiency and performance, the enhancement of brand value, a decrease in environmental impacts, an increase in customer loyalty, cost avoidance and risk reductions, better visibility and control of organisation-wide performance and better staff attraction and retention.

However, the most striking fact of all is the potential financial gains achieved through greater staff productivity, which dwarf all other savings (although these are arguably more difficult to quantify), as staff costs are by far the highest component of costs for an officer occupier. Sustainable buildings typically yield a 1-1.5% increase in productivity, which may not seem much, but which is more than enough to cover all the energy costs of a company.

Constructors

For constructors the business case for sustainability is based on an internal and external perspective. Internally, profit may be increased by using resources more efficiently by tackling the internal consumption of energy, water and other resources. Externally, company image and profile in the marketplace can be improved through sustainability.

Pursuing such a strategy will not only reduce operational expenses by introducing efficiencies, it will also provide competitive advantages when obtaining new work and tendering for contracts, it will provide better compliance with building, environmental and health and safety regulations. Furthermore, it will help to establish better relations with the local communities in which contractors often cause significant disruption through construction projects, enhance staff relationships as they feel more valued, and – as eluded to earlier – ‘future proof’ buildings against rising energy costs, tighter environmental regulation and thereby provide a method of differentiation.

An enhanced corporate reputation is one of the more significant benefits of becoming a sustainable contractor. As part of the growing interest in corporate social responsibility, organisations are under pressure to report their carbon footprint. Forward-thinking leaders recognise this as an opportunity to develop a green strategy that enhances their corporate brand and set them apart from competitors. The global IBM CEO study showed that 80% of CEOs believe that sustainability impacts on their brand value.

Valuers

However, there is one additional stakeholder group that needs to be considered: valuers. Even though they themselves do not profit from sustainability directly, they provide a crucial role in the industry. Owners' and developers' prime motivation is usually profit and they tend to view buildings as financial ventures which have to provide a return. They generally borrow to finance their buildings and lenders want to know that loans are viable and secure.

However, although they may generate greater value in the longer run, green buildings can cost more up front, pressuring perceived viability. Central to this is valuation and the appraiser, who has to understand whether green buildings add value; yet the real estate and financial sectors have not been widely engaged and the evidence proving Green Value is growing but has not been fully quantified. In this context, not all appraisers, developers and owners are convinced and some remain slow to change habits, especially now that the recession has started to bite.

590 Views 0 Comments Permalink Tags: sustainability, challenges, built_environment, stakeholders

The skyscrapers, shopping centres and architectural masterpieces that were once a symbol of this country’s progress are in danger of becoming symbols of waste and overconsumption. But this level of consumption is not sustainable, and several factors are fuelling a search for alternatives among organizations that operate buildings and building portfolios.

There is now very strong scientific evidence to suggest that climate change – and the lesser well-known crisis of a speeding up in the extinction of species – is man-made, and the construction industry has a foremost role to play in countering it as it has a disproportionally large negative impact on the environment.

The ‘eco footprint’ of the built environment is indeed considerable as around 50% of all global resources go into the construction industry. Buildings account for approximately 44% of total carbon dioxide emissions, whilst around 45% of energy generated is used to power and maintain buildings. What is more, the industry itself is wasteful as well in its practice as in the region of 13 million tonnes of the construction and demolition waste produced every year in the United Kingdom is made up of materials delivered to site but never used.

It is in this light that the industry needs to decide how it wants to position itself. Stakeholders are becoming more knowledgeable about sustainable development, legislation is becoming more extensive and taxes are starting to affect the value propositions of businesses. Nevertheless, the response of the industry has been characteristically slow and, for example, only 7% of new built offices are BREEAM (the UK equivalent of LEED) rated as ‘good’ or above.

What is it all about?

Sustainability took centre-stage on the international podium after Gro Harlem Brundtland’s speech in 1987 when she promoted the concept of ‘sustainable development’ in the UN report ‘Our Common Future’ as: ‘Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs’.

Subsequently, the drive to balance the inherent tensions between economic growth and environmental and social impacts also led to what is often referred to as the ‘Triple Bottom Line’ approach to sustainable development, which attempts to rationalise the development that leads economic growth, whilst maintaining social inclusion and minimising environmental impact.

Translating both these definitions into the construction setting has been proven to be somewhat problematic. In fact, there are numerous definitions of ‘sustainable’ and ‘green’ buildings, but little agreement on the terms. One possible definition of ‘sustainable buildings’ is provided by the UK Green Building Council as:

Buildings which:

  • Are resource efficient (physical resources, energy, water, etcetera);
  • Have zero or very low emissions, (CO2, other greenhouse gases, etcetera);
  • Contribute positively to societal development and well being, and;
  • Contribute positively to the economic performance of their owners and/or beneficiaries and to national economic development more generally.

The carrot or the stick?

With the rise of globalisation and the communication revolution that arose from it, people increasingly started to question the current patterns of consumption, thereby putting pressure on the international community to place sustainability at the top of their agenda.

It is then no wonder that over the last decade or so, sustainability has been driven forward into our industry predominantly through legislation: building regulations are continuing to change to meet ever more stringent energy efficiency and low-carbon standards, planning policy now requires sustainable construction to be considered in new developments, many clients require green design to be an integral part of their buildings and contracts are increasingly rewarded on the basis of environmental management policies.

Legislation will remain to be a dominant force in decades to come as a short selection of upcoming commitments and recommendations within the United Kingdom underlines:

  • 2010:       Carbon Reduction Commitment (CRC) came into force;
  • 2012:       25% of construction products to be procured from responsible suppliers (Strategy for Sustainable Construction);
  • 2016:       All new build homes to be carbon-neutral (Code for Sustainable Homes);
  • 2016:       All new schools to be carbon-neutral (Budget Speech, 2008);
  • 2018:       All new public buildings to be carbon-neutral (Budget Speech, 2008);
  • 2019:       All new non-domestic buildings to be carbon-neutral (Budget Speech, 2008);
  • 2020:       Reduce CO2 by 30% and water by 25% on the central government office estate (Government Sustainable Procurement Action Plan);
  • 2020:       Reduce UK CO2 emissions by 20% from 1990 (Climate Change Committee);
  • 2050:       Reduce UK CO2 emissions by 60% from 1990 (Queens Speech, 2009)    .

It is then not surprising that in a survey of the construction industry (executed by the law-firm Taylor Wessings) over 70% of total respondents considered the sustainability agenda to be very or highly important to the industry as a whole. Furthermore, the most important driver for the sustainability agenda was deemed to be legislation, followed by rising energy costs and potential commercial or brand damage. However, contractors did not find potential brand damage a concern, but instead are more concerned about ‘the risk of being left behind’, which clearly indicates that most contractors adopt a me-too approach.

On the flip side, when the same respondents were asked what form of government strategy would be most effective in driving the sustainability agenda forward, tax relief was the most popular response (40%), though regulatory control followed closely behind (39%), and a significant proportion (17%) believe that grants or aid will be most effective.

Furthermore, it was felt that regulatory change is the most effective approach for new developments, whilst for existing stock addressing the rising cost of energy and security of energy supply will be more important in driving change.

These results suggest that although the 'stick' of regulatory sanction is acknowledged to have its place, a clear majority believe that the 'carrot' of financial incentive will be the most effective strategy for driving real behavioural change. After all, regulation is slow and it tends to stifle innovation in a lot of ways because people just try to meet the regulation, even more so as impediments exist that prevent them from going beyond minimum compliance.

Does it cost the earth?

In the ‘Never Waste a Good Crisis’ report by Constructing Excellence, four blockers were identified that historically stifled change within the construction industry and still exist today: business and economic models, capability, delivery model and industry structure. With regards to sustainable development, these blockers exist as well, but are further exacerbated within the private sector because of their emphasis on financial business drivers.

It was argued in ‘A Report to California’s Sustainable Building Task Force’ that governments see the benefits of sustainable buildings more through social and environmental benefits with some regard to financial. On the other hand the private sector may be less likely to care about health and environmental impacts and hence might perceive lower financial benefits of building ‘green’.

However, while best-in-class performers achieve impressive results – from cost reductions and improved efficiencies to new customer acquisition – companies still cite budget challenges or the difficulty of demonstrating ROI as the main blockers to sustainable development. But does sustainable development really cost the earth financially?

The typical assumption is that the build costs associated with the delivery of new and refurbished ‘green’ buildings (ie. BREEAM ‘excellent’ standard) carry an unviable premium. However, there is an increasing body of evidence emerging that contradicts this long-held sustainability construction myth. For example, a cost analysis carried out by Cyril Sweet, identified that capital costs associated with reaching the ‘Very Good’ and ‘Excellent’ levels of sustainability performance in the BREEAM were in the range of a few percent. Davis Langdon, the California Sustainable Building Task Force and the US General Services Administration came to similar conclusions in the United States of America.

Crucially, if suitable consideration is made in the planning, commissioning and design phase prior to office construction, it is quite possible for no build cost premium to exist at all, provided there is a multi-disciplinary approach between relevant stakeholders in the procurement, design and sustainable construction processes, and practices are embraced from the start as a key performance requirement.  Evidently, this is not the norm within the industry. On the contrary, because of the aforementioned blockers, currently there exists a circle of blame between the four stakeholder groups (investors, developers, occupiers and constructors) blaming each other for a lack of progress.

Investors often have a short investment timeframe, typically holding real estate assets for up to five years and thereby discouraging them from making investments with a longer payback periods. There are also problems around ‘split incentives’, where those who make the initial investment (i.e. landlords) are not the ones (i.e. occupiers) who reap the long-term benefits. Furthermore, the long-standing practice of competitive bidding and the appeal of lower costs in standard construction provide a deterrent to green buildings.

Therefore, although sustainable development should not be more expensive than standard construction, until the tensions between the various stakeholder groups are resolved, one should assume that typically building ‘green’ will have some build cost premium. Nevertheless, if a longer term perspective is taken, for each stakeholder group this initial additional cost will pale into comparison to generated future benefits.


525 Views 0 Comments Permalink Tags: sustainability, leed, built_environment, circle_of_blame, breeam, legislation

The era of mobile internet and particularly mobile video has long been forecast by futurists such as Arthur C. Clarke who described as far back as 1968 in his novel “2001: A Space Odyssey” how one of the crew members uses a video phone to call home for a chat with his daughter. However, as often is the case with cutting edge advances, progress has not always been as smooth and as fast as one would have liked as it has been affected by either adverse economic conditions or technologies that failed to catch up with user imagination.

 

Three Waves of Video

Nevertheless, that mobile video will happen is a certainty. Cisco has predicted that three waves of video, driven by changing user behaviour and social networking phenomena, will result in massive volumes of traffic on the networks.1 The first wave has already occurred and is defined by end users consuming video over the internet on their PCs, shortly followed by the second wave which is characterised by end users consuming internet video on their TVs. The second wave is already with us and companies like Google and Apple are tentatively putting their TV offerings into the marketplace, whilst companies as NetFlix have created new business models around rentals of streaming movies and applications like Slingshot allow users to redirect their TV feeds to anywhere.

 

The third wave is not far behind and will involve internet video consumption via mobile devices. Clearly, the technology around this is still in its infancy, but significant progress is being made. As the UMTS2 put it: “The widespread availability of bandwidth together with the availability of smart user devices has changed the game. The turning point has been the simultaneous availability of networks and devices both capable of delivering a compelling user experience – usability plus accessibility is a winning combination.” A typical 3G network will provide speeds around 1Mbps which allows small screens to update in five seconds or less, compared with 10 seconds or more on 2G networks. Whilst this is in most instances obviously not yet suited to streaming video of a reasonable quality, the introduction of Long Term Evolution (LTE) network will result in blisteringly fast screen updates, transforming the entire user experience on the mobile internet.

 

Growth Predictions

The UMTS also predicts that traffic in general will increase in general and that it will grow to 33 times the current level by 2020. Traffic will reach a staggering 127 Exabytes annually by that date and by 2025 the figure will hit 351 EB, up 174% on the 2020 number. Indeed, in their view “...mobile traffic volumes are set to explode under the impact of a tsunami of bandwidth-hungry video traffic consumed by devices such as smartphones, netbooks and smartbooks that incorporate computer and internet capability and can run a wide range of data applications.”2

 

Indeed, according to the latest forecasts from the Cisco Visual Networking Index global mobile data traffic will double every year through 2014, increasing 39 times between 2009 and 2014.3 By 2012, according to Cisco, global mobile datatraffic will exceed 1000 petabytes (1 exabyte) per month, a thousand-fold increase since 2005. One thousand petabytes is an awful lot of data. Accenture estimates that all the music ever made accounts for about 1.5 petabytes and all the movies ever produced account for between 4 and 5 petabytes.

in seven years.

 

mobileinternettrafficgrowth.jpg

 

 

The impact of mobile video is clear when one puts it in perspective next to more common usage of mobile bandwidth: a single laptop can generate as much traffic as 1,300 basic feature phones and one smartphone typically generates 10 tunes the traffic of a basic phone. Some analysts say that if video would not exist, the growth projections for mobile traffic would be 50 to 60% lower.

 

Market Movers & Shakers

All this is not lost on the big market players. Cisco, for example, stated in their 5th May 2011 press release that they will refocus on five key networking businesses, one of them being video. Likewise, Microsoft confirmed on 10th May 2011 that will acquiring the popular internet phone and video service Skype for $8.5bn, whilst it was valued at roughly $2.5bn only 18 months ago. Microsoft appears keen to pay a premium for this service as they are heavily investing in their Online Services Division, an area of business that many criticise them for attacking belatedly through investments in mail, search and social networking.

 

So, what is in it for Microsoft? There are a number of avenues that Microsoft can pursue with Skype. Firstly it can aim to improve the quality of its services (something that Skype has been pursuing themselves through their HD offering) or the reliability of their services (something that Skype has been struggling to establish given their global outage in December 2010). In reality, Microsoft buys into 600 million users and a lot of potential. In the words of Tim Weber, Business Editor of the BBC News: “Marry Skype's software with the Xbox Kinect and an HD television set, and Microsoft can make a powerful argument for getting into millions of living rooms. Think beyond teleconferencing for the whole family: there's one-on-one training, home schooling, even patient care delivered remotely and in vision. Smarten it up for the corporate world, and Microsoft can challenge the telepresence business of firms like Cisco and Polycom. And Skype is multi-platform, reaching into the worlds of Apple and Linux. Finally, Skype is mobile, and can be paired with Windows Phone 7.”4

Mobile video is certainly starting to hot up. Watch this space.

 

 

References:

1 Approaching the Zettabyte Era, Cisco Systems, June 2008

2 “Recognising the Promise of Mobile Broadband”, UMTS Forum, July 2010

3 Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update 2009-2014, February 2010

4 “Microsoft Confirms Takeover of Skype”, BBC News, 10th May 2011

640 Views 0 Comments Permalink Tags: cisco, umts, mobile_video, mobile_traffice

The history of the workplace can be boiled down in three simplified types of offices, each reminiscent of the period that they were conceived. The first type is referred to as a ‘Taylorist’ office which is based on the principles of Scientific Management, which aimed to develop superior methods and machines by standardising the tools and environments of work around the turn of the 20th century. The ‘Social Democratic’ office came about as the consequence of post Second World War and economic reconstruction, and constituted purpose built and highly specific buildings with a view of long-term ownership and socially driven design. The third type, the ‘Networked’ office, was made possible by robust, reliable and ubiquitous 21st century information technology, with the aim of being responsive to customer demand through output driven processes.1

In spite of these three categories, the ‘Taylorist’ office still remains the de facto paradigm for office design even though our requirements from offices and understanding of productive environments have changed dramatically ever since. The results are as staggering as unfortunate. Gensler2 estimates that Inefficient offices cost British business £135bn per annum and a better designed workplace could improve productivity by 19%. The economic loss to the US of poor indoor environmental quality alone was worth approximately $60bn in 1989 and the average productivity loss for all workers in the US due to poor internal working environments equates to approximately 3% for all white collar workers. The self-reported productivity loss for UK workers in a survey of office workers was, on average, 3%3.

Perhaps this is not surprising given that workspace is in a constant state of change. These changes can be small-scale (e.g., adding new desks or offices for new employees) or large-scale (e.g. moving the entire company into a new building) and anywhere in between. Indeed, the 1999 CIBSE survey found that 30% of organisations have experienced churn rates of over 50% over the three-year survey period4. Not to mention that the workforce itself is in constant change, and the OGC5 estimates that when annual leave, training and a diverse pattern is taken into consideration desk occupancy levels rarely exceed 60%.

Form, Function & Human Needs

These levels of inefficiencies and wastage are quite simply mind-blowing, even more so since there is a stark realisation that something is wrong. According to the architects Gensler6 nine out of ten believe that workplace quality affects their attitude, job satisfaction, and productivity, and also makes a company more competitive. There is a striking discrepancy, however, between this high valuation of workplace design and workers’ perceptions of how it is undervalued by their own companies. Close to half of office workers—46 percent—feel that their employers do not see providing a high-performance workplace as a priority, and two-thirds see minimizing costs or maintaining the status quo as the main goal behind the design of their own office.

Obviously, there are other facts that impact on staff productivity, performance and satisfaction. According to CABE7, in assessing staff satisfaction, organisational factors (hierarchy, culture, reward systems, leadership) have the largest influence, followed by individual factors (such as aspiration, reward, loyalty, self-motivation, aptitude, experience and training). The extent to which office infrastructure contributes to these factors is difficult to quantify, but claims have been made that the workplace is responsible for 24 per cent of job satisfaction and that this can affect staff performance by 5 per cent for individuals and (because of the benefits of improved interaction) by 11 per cent for teams. To put this in context, it has also been estimated that a 2–5 per cent increase in staff performance can cover the total cost of providing their accommodation.

Indeed, designing for human interaction should be the central role of office space. People are the users of the workplace, and the purpose of a workplace is to facilitate the business processes used in achieving their goals. Even if a workplace development initiative is primarily driven by financial, technological, or productivity objectives, people’s reactions to the workplace can have significant ramifications that control whether these objectives are achieved. Clements-Croome8 concurs with this and states: “What needs to be recognised in the building design process is that there are three key attributes which interact. The type of building, the facilities provided for environment and utilities, and the use of the building are three inter-related facets. In practice these issues are often considered separately but their interaction is ignored. In other words form, function and human needs are the foundation for deriving architecture which not only contributes to the well-being of the individuals occupying the building but also makes a significant impact on the business organisation.”

Efficiency or Effectiveness?

The problem with current offices is that many of the decisions in the design, construction and facilities management processes are led by capital cost arguments which often give rise to low cost but also low quality buildings. As a result, the overriding design criterium has been efficiency, which essentially equates to landlord efficiency (i.e. the proportion of gross floor area which is rent-earning), density of occupation (i.e. the amount of net lettable space allocated to each desk space) and utilisation rates (i.e. the number of people allocated to each desk space)7.

However, the cost of providing accommodation for office workers in terms of both capital (construction) costs and building running costs is dwarfed by the costs of their salaries and benefits. In the words of Lomonaco9: “If the design and operation of the building (a low-cost component) affects the productivity of the office workers (the highest-cost component), a substantial economic leverage effect can be expected through carefully conceived building design and operation. In other words, improving the office environment could be a highly cost-effective strategy if it enhanced the performance and satisfaction of the occupants.” To put this in perspective, the OGP10 estimates that over the typical 20-year life of a facility, 90 percent of its cost can be attributed to the salaries of the people working there, while only 5 percent is initial construction costs and another 5 percent is operation and maintenance costs. Similar numbers are quoted by Thompson11, WDBG12 and CABE8.

It, therefore, makes perfect financial sense to instigate a shift in focus from efficiency to effectiveness in office design. According to Heerwagen13 a building can have both positive and negative effects on performance. Negative effects are frequently associated with discomforts, distractions or health risks that interfere with peoples’ ability to do their work or that reduce their motivation to work. However, he states that: “... the mere absence of discomforts and problems may not by itself produce high states of well being and performance. Realization of well-being and performance benefits may depend upon the degree to which a building directly or indirectly affects psychological and cognitive functioning and physical health.”

A Lack of Understanding

The problem is that too few organisations get beyond merely reducing the annoyances associated with work environments. To do otherwise, management must regard its prime asset, the workforce, as a collection of individuals with a unique set of needs and motivations, something that a lot of companies struggle to get to terms with. This is not helped by the fact that the correlation between work environments and staff productivity are well researched, yet most of it has remained inconclusive. As of yet, there are no hard and fast rules for a perfect work environment. As a result, in spite of a growing need for, and exposure to, workspace design decision making, managers still tend to see “space” as peripheral to their core activities and, indeed, to the mission of their companies.

This is not helped by the way the construction industry provides its services. One of the differences between construction and other industries is that the customer’s decision to ‘buy’ a product in construction is usually based on the ‘concept’ of the final product rather than on the demonstrated finished product. However, this concept is then defined by the people who are often cut off from the wider and more important strategic business considerations and they are rewarded primarily, and sometimes exclusively, for cost cutting: corporate real estate and facilities managers. In practice, the goals of most corporate property teams boil down to three things: reducing the cost of real estate as much as possible, helping the business use real estate to achieve as much profit in the business as possible, and reducing any possible risks to the company’s reputation. All of these cater to efficiency, but are anathema to effectiveness.

Indeed, as CABE7 puts it: “... a company’s most natural response to that same force of competition is to seek to drive down its costs – and premises represent a cost that is both readily identified and readily comprehended. As in so many facets of life, however, a preoccupation with cost may actually destroy value: but the ways in which office accommodation can create value for a business, not just through economy but also through improving the effectiveness of its people and broadcasting positive messages about its values, are inadequately understood.”

Moving Beyond Efficiency

As the economy is changing towards a knowledge economy, so should offices change. Already many companies are moving to distributed organisational architectures so that they can bring the right people together to make decisions. Behind the shift is the need for improved collaboration – not just across companies, but also with their partners, suppliers and customers. One way that companies are fostering this is to break down the scale of the workplace and tailor it more closely to the way people really collaborate. Workplace flexibility is a key component of this as fixed physical assets cannot be reconfigured to meet changing business needs as quickly as organisational processes and structures. They may act more as a brake than as a springboard for change, given the significant shift between past and future patterns of accommodation need.

I find the concept of an integrated workplace strategy, as introduced by MIT10, a useful one to define what it is that organisations should be aiming for: “[an integrated workplace] ... is a system that creatively combines wisdom about the nature of physical settings (where the work is conducted); the information technologies used in the performance of work (how data, opinions, and ideas are accessed, processed, and communicated); the nature of work patterns and processes (when and how tasks must be performed to achieve business objectives); and finally, organizational culture and management (the formal and informal values, expectations, policies, and behaviors that influence all the other factors).”

McGregor14 breaks this down further into five key attributes that buildings need to possess in order to be able to meet users’ needs through time:

  1. Adaptability – Ensuring the workspace can be configured and re-configured to suit different building users, their changing needs, work processes and layouts;
  2. Capability – Providing the potential to introduce, replace and change building elements, services and systems throughout any user’s occupancy of the workspace and the building’s life;
  3. Compatibility – Ensuring that all aspects of the building are wholly co-ordinated and integrated, and none selected or installed without its impact upon, and the influences from, all other elements being considered;
  4. Controllability – Providing users with the means to maximise their use and operation of the workspace, its services and facilities, while minimising the conflicts between corporate values and individual values;
  5. Sustainability – To ensure that the workspace and its facilities are operated and maintained to enhance individual and corporate productivity, and their health and wellbeing at all times, in an environmentally responsible manner throughout the entire life of the building(s).

Creating such an office is not an easy task as it means different things to different organisation. Dependant on their dominant work mode, culture and business some may value a need for distraction-free work whereas otheres may thrive on collaboration and a certain level of chaos. In spite of this, the benefits are clear. In a survey executed by Gensler6 managers reported employee productivity increases of up to 19% once a workplace was improved, whilst an increase of a mere 1% would be sufficient to cover the cost of necessary infrastructure improvements to enhance most working environments8.

References:

 

1 Duffy, Frank “The Shape of the Post Recession Workplace”, presentation at the NLA conference, 2009.

2 “These Four Walls – The Real British Office”, Gensler: United Kingdom, 2005

3 Raw, G. et al (1989). Further Findings from the Office Environment Survey: Part 1. BRE, BRE/109/1/9.

4 Brittain, James; Jaunzens, Denice; Davies, Hywel “Designing for Flexible Building Services in Office Based Environments”, ABS Consulting: United Kingdom, 2000

5 “Flexible Workspace in the DTI – Working Space Harder”, OGC: United Kingdom, 2007

6 “These Four Walls – The Real British Office”, Gensler: United Kingdom, 2005

7 “The Impact of Office Design on Business Performance”, CABE: United Kingdom, 2008

8 Clements-Croome, Derek J. “Environmental Quality and the Productive Workplace”, University of Reading: United Kingdom, 2003

9 Lomonaco, Carol; Miller, Dennis “Environmental Satisfaction, Personal Control and the Positive Correlation to Increased Productivity”, Johnson Controls: United States of America, 2007

10 “The Integrated Workplace”, OGP: United States of America, 1999

11 Thomspon, Brian, “Property in the Economy”, Drivers Jonas: United Kingdom, 2008

12 ”Productive”, WDBG: United Kingdom, 2008

13 Heerwagen, Judith; Johnson, Jeffrey A. Et al “Energy Effectiveness and the Ecology of Work: Links to Productivity and Well-Being”, 1998

14 McGregor, W R. 1994: Designing a ‘Learning Building’. Facilities Vol 12 No 3, 9-13.

307 Views 0 Comments Permalink Tags: sustainability, workplace, form, human_needs, controllability, capability, compatability, adaptability, function

The United Nations released their 2010 revision of their World Population Prospects, which predicts that “... the current world population of close to 7 billion is projected to reach 10.1 billion in the next ninety years, reaching 9.3 billion by the middle of this century.” Most of this growth will come from so-called high-fertility countries, which reside in the developing world in Africa, Asia, Oceania and Latin America. They do add in a clause that states that small variations in fertility can produce major differences in the size of populations over the long run, which is to be expected if you forecast over such long horizons. The following excerpts are of notable interest:

 

Current fertility levels vary markedly among countries.  High-fertility countries are mostly concentrated in Africa (39 out of the 55 countries in the continent have high fertility), but there are also nine in Asia, six in Oceania and four in Latin America. Low-fertility countries include all countries in Europe except Iceland and Ireland, 19 out of the 51 in Asia, 14 out of the 39 in the Americas, two in Africa (Mauritius and Tunisia) and one in Oceania (Australia).”

 

The highest potential for future population growth is in high-fertility countries. Between 2011 and 2100, the medium variant projects that the population of the high-fertility countries would more than triple, passing from 1.2 billion to 4.2 billion. During the same period, the population of the intermediate-fertility countries would increase by just 26 per cent, from 2.8 billion to 3.5 billion, while that of the low-fertility countries would decline by about 20 per cent, from 2.9 billion to 2.4 billion.”

 

By the turn of the century, only the population of high-fertility countries would still be increasing. According to the medium variant, in 2095-2100, the populations of both the low-fertility countries and the intermediate-fertility countries would be declining at a rate of approximately 0.3 per cent per year. In sharp contrast, the population of the high-fertility countries would still be increasing at a rate of 0.5 per cent per year.”

 

Life expectancy is projected to increase in the three groups of countries considered. ... the expectation of life among high-fertility countries rises to 69 years in 2045-2050 and to 77 in 2095-2100. Among intermediate-fertility countries, average life expectancy was 68 years in 2005-2010 and is projected to rise to 77 years in 2045-2050 and 82 in 2095-2010. Low-fertility countries tend to have, as a group, higher average life expectancy. It was estimated at 74 years in 2005-2010 and is projected to rise to 80 years in 2045-2050 and to 86 years in 2095-2100. Globally, life expectancy is projected to increase from 68 years in 2005-2010 to 81 in 2095-2100.”

 

Because declining fertility and increasing longevity lead to population ageing, population ageing is fastest in the low-fertility countries. Today, 11 per cent of the population of low-fertility countries is aged 65 years or over and just 34 per cent is under age 25. By 2050, according to the medium variant, 26 per cent of their population will be aged 65 or over and just 24 per cent will be below age 25. However, because fertility is projected to increase over the projection period, by 2100 the proportion under 25 increases to 27 per cent and that of those aged 65 or over rises minimally to 28 per cent.”

 

Read the press release or view the data.

401 Views 0 Comments Permalink Tags: united_nations, population_forecast, fertility, life_expectancy, population_growth

We intuitively understand that cities have a major impact on the economies that they reside in, but what is a less well-known fact is that this impact is disproportionally large. In other words: the dominant parts of the world’s economies are locked up in their cities. For example, McKinsey1 states that although half of the world’s population lives in cities, they actually generate approximately 80% of global GDP. However, they continue by stating that the urban economic story is even more concentrated than this suggests as the top 600 urban centres – with only a fifth of the world’s population – actually generate 60 percent of global GDP.

 

And this applies even more so to primate cities (see my previous post: “A Brief History of Cities”), Tokyo accounts for 28% of the Japanese population, but 40% of the country’s GDP. Paris is home to 16% of the French population, but is responsible for 30% of its GDP. In the developing world, Lagos is home to 8% of Nigeria’s population but contributes 30% of the country’s output.2 And there is no sign of abating when it comes to this skewed effect as the top 100 cities ranked by their contribution to global GDP growth in the next 15 years will contribute around 35 percent of GDP growth to 2025.1

 

Global, yet Local

Indeed, in OECD countries, most metropolitan regions have a higher GDP per capita than their national average, higher labour productivity levels, and many of them tend to have faster growth rates than their countries. So the question arises, why this is case? First and foremost, the natures of economies have changed dramatically over the last decennia. Whilst the developed world was industrialised and the developing world was largely focussed on rural life, we now witness dramatic shifts whereby in the case of the former service provision has supplanted production as the primary economic activity and the latter are either rapidly industrialising or in some instances even leapfrogging directly into services.

 

In her explanation of the emergence of global cities, Sassen3 points to the opposing geographical trends of dispersal and centralization that accompany globalization. The global dispersal of economic activities, helped by both space-shrinking technologies and deregulation measures, creates a huge demand for expanded central management functions. These functions include corporate headquarters and advanced business services, such as accounting, advertising, consulting, and financial and legal services. These services, according to Sassen, tend to concentrate disproportionately in large global cities, such as London, New York and Tokyo, where their operation can benefit from “territorialized business networks” – in other terms, institutional thickness and territorial embeddedness. In short: a globally integrated, services-based world economy means that business will locate activities where capital – both human and physical – is concentrated, i.e., cities

 

Skills Matter

According to Hutton4, the reason for this is that both the knowledge economy and globalisation happen in places, albeit unevenly, and that cities and regions often provide the nodal points where these processes interact. In his view there are two main reasons why cities and city-regions matter in the knowledge economy and in the globalised economy. Firstly, “...because they offer productivity benefits, including access to markets and a variety of external economies of scale, including access to large and specialised labour pools (particularly of high skill workers).”

 

This is important because three-fifths of businesses list availability of qualified staff (human capital) and quality of telecommunications (physical capital) as absolutely essential.5 A stakeholder research sponsored by Siemens6 also states that unemployment and underemployment emerge as the predominant economic challenge in the survey (cited by 20% of respondents overall). It is the top economic challenge according to respondents in emerging and transitional cities, and comes second only to economic development as a concern in mature cities. The next most commonly cited issues are economic development and the rising cost of living (both 14%).

 

Hutton4 continues by stating that “... cities and city-regions also offer proximity to other knowledge workers, enabling tacit knowledge to be shared; the knowledge that cannot be easily codified and is best exchanged and developed through face-to-face contact and trust-based relationships. They offer a critical mass of firms, who interact through staff moves, networking and personal relationships. In other words, firms can benefit from spill-over effects from other firms’ innovative activity. These spill-over effects are particularly important in the knowledge economy as they can significantly contribute to companies’ ability to respond innovatively to changing markets.” This is underlined by Dirks5 who shows that cities hold a stronger capacity for innovation as more than 81 percent of Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) patents are produced in urban regions.

 

The second reason, in the eyes of Hutton4, that cities and city-regions matter in the knowledge economy is consumption benefits: access to a rich variety of goods, services, cultural facilities and social opportunities. Research suggests that the benefits of living in a city or city-region may be particularly attractive for the most talented and entrepreneurial workers – in other words, the workers that drive the knowledge economy. This can in turn mean that knowledge workers gain access to a range of employment options, giving them the incentives to develop specialised skills. Clustering consumption services together also supports further innovation, as well as enabling providers to better understand their markets. Interestingly enough, whilst cities are attractive to educated workers, such workers also disproportionally contribute to the future growth of cities. De La Garza7 estimates that a decadal increase of 10 per cent in the share of the adult population with a college degree translates into a rise of between 3 and up to 5 per cent in the population growth rate during the same period.

 

Masters of their own Destinies

In such an urbanising world cities will be the driving forces of economic growth and thus will gain greater power, freedom and clout within their national economies. We will not see a return to city-states as during the time of Ancient Greece, but cities will gain greater control over their own development, both economically and politically. Economically, they are becoming the hubs of a globally integrated, services-based society. Politically, they are in the midst of a realignment of power – with greater influence, but also greater responsibility as it is no longer enough that a national government is doing the right things to attract investment.

 

Indeed, as Cohen8, senior advisor to the world bank, stated: “Importantly, we can conclude that the productive contribution of urbanisation to national welfare may change as a result of global economic processes, but its overall role in providing more than half of GDP and much more in some countries will continue and increase in importance. The economic future of countries will depend to an increasing degree on the productivity of urban based economic activities.”14

 

 

References

1 “Mapping the Economic Power of Cities”, McKinsey: United States of America, 2009

2 “Megacity Challenges – A Stakeholder Perspective”, Siemens AG: Germany,  2007

3 Sassen, Saskia, ed., 2002, Global Networks, Linked Cities, New York: Routledge.

4 Hutton, Will “Building Successful Cities in the Knowledge Economy: The Role of Soft Policy Instruments”, the Work Foundation: 2008

5 Dirks, Susanne and Keeling, Mary “A Vision of Smarter Cities” IBM: United States of America, 2010

6 “Megacity Challenges – A Stakeholder Perspective”, Siemens AG: Germany,  2007

7 De la Garza, Adrian G. “Do Smart Cities Grow Faster?” MPRA Paper 10811, September 2008.

8 Cohen, Michael A. “The Impact of the Global Economy on Cities”, The Challenges of Urban Governance, ed. Mila Freire and Richard Stren; (Washington: The World Bank, 2001), pp.5-17

1,137 Views 0 Comments Permalink Tags: skills, cities, knowledge_economy, physical_capital, economies, globalisation, human_capital, gdp
1 2 Previous Next