Market transitions take a solid vision and years of hard work to materialize.  But even early technology adopters can realize significant operational savings with the products available today.  CiscoLive presents a once a year opportunity for customers to meet with many of the world’s top ICT thinkers and innovators—all in one place.  Though the Cisco EnergyWise partner program has over 100 technology partners, not all are shipping products.  Visit the EnergyWise Pavilion or the Technical Solutions Clinic for a deep dive look at what’s possible and what’s coming.  Cisco EnergyWise and the partner ecosystem can make IT professionals heroes.

For an overview of all events, visit the daily show schedule here:  http://www.ciscolive.com/us/week-at-a-glance.php#monday

If you haven’t registered yet and just want to wander the world of solutions, admission is free if submitted in advance.  http://www.ciscolive.com/us/registration-packages/

Cisco EnergyWise Events

• Collaborate with us on Twitter using the #energywise tag or find us on the Smart Connected Communities Institute’s Cisco EnergyWise site.  http://www.smartconnectedcommunities.org/groups/cisco-energywise?view=overview

• See Cisco EnergyWise in action at the Cisco EnergyWise-UPOE Pavilion, booth 2776.

• For the most comprehensive look at Cisco EnergyWise solutions, visit the EnergyWise site in the Cisco Technical Solutions Clinic, booth 2906.

Tuesday

8 AM:  “IT Transformed: The Impact of Energy, Sustainability and LED Lighting Trends”, presented by EnergyWise creator, Matt Laherty.

BRKSPG-1403--This course is intended to provide a survey of energy and sustainability trends and show how these will impact the network engineer. The course will cover: sustainable defined, ICT trends, Smart Grid and Smart Loads, energy profile visibility, net-zero buildings, real-time 3D operating BIM, Converged System Operations Center (SOC), and much more!

Wednesday

8 AM:  “Cisco EnergyWise Fundamentals: The Network as the Platform for Energy Management”, presented by EnergyWise Architect, John Parello.  John has over 20 years experience building products to solve significant customer challenges.

With energy and environmental constraints in mind, Cisco has developed a solution that makes the network a control plane for energy management. Cisco EnergyWise enables the network to monitor and manage network and network connected devices. This includes Switching, Routing, PoE, and Endpoints devices such as PCs, Servers, PDU's and facility equipment. Cisco EnergyWise makes the network a control plane for energy management and gives IT and Facility organizations the ability to manage energy using the network. This session will provide an introduction to the fundamentals of Cisco EnergyWise including principles, configuration, and deployment with a focus on energy and cost savings. Finally, the session will provide information about current and upcoming industry standards to enhance energy efficiency.

Thursday

10 AM:  “Cisco EnergyWise Deployment & Practices”, presented by Luis Suau, owner and operator of the Cisco Innervated Building lab.  No one knows more about turning up EnergyWise than Luis.

          BRKSPG-2403 - The session discusses implementing EnergyWise on a network. The session will cover:           configuration suggestion, implementation issues, Cisco solutions, and partner solutions.

All Week in the World of Solutions (Booth Map):

https://www.ciscolive2011.com/exhibitor/reg/boothmap/boothMap.jsp

Technical Solutions Clinic, 2906:  Several EnergyWise team members will have video links back to the “Innervated Building Lab” in San Jose, CA.  The team can discuss and demonstrate how to capture whole building, sub system and device level power information and project it on to a lobby digital sign, phone or hand held device (and other energy related topics).  The demos use a combination of beta and shipping products provided by:  Cisco, 1e, CA, Cyber Switching, Eaton, FieldServer, Industry Weapon, JouleX, Lenovo, NuLEDs, Schneider Electric, Raritan, WTI and more.

CA:  818 and 2776, the EnergyWise-UPoE Pavilion:  .  CA Technologies (NASDAQ: CA) is an IT management software and solutions company with expertise across all IT environments—from mainframe and distributed, to virtual and cloud. Our products manage and secure IT environments and enable customers to deliver more flexible IT services. We offer innovative products and services that provide the insight and control essential for IT organizations and foundational elements to make the promise of flexible IT and agile business a reality. With over thirty years of experience in IT management, our deep expertise in diverse and complex environments enables us to solve the toughest IT management challenges. We collaborate with our customers to help them grow their businesses, offer new services, become more competitive, and achieve the business goals they have set. Relied on by the majority of the Global Fortune 500 to manage their evolving IT ecosystems, CA Technologies makes business agility possible.  Visit CA in the EnergyWise Pavilion to learn how to manage power across you’re an organization using ecoSoftware & Cisco EnergyWise.  To learn more visit:  http://www.ca.com/us/ecosoftware.aspx

CommScope:  2776, the EnergyWise-UPoE Pavilion:   CommScope has played a role in virtually all the world’s best communication networks. CommScope creates the infrastructure that connects people and technologies through every evolution. The CommScope  portfolio of end-to-end solutions includes everything our customers need to build high-performing wired and wireless networks. As much as technology changes, our goal remains the same: to help our customers create, innovate, design, and build faster and better.  Visit the EnergyWise Pavilion to see new Commscope products in action.  www.commscope.com

Cyber Switching:  2434: Cyber Switching designs and manufactures power distribution products that are value-added solutions, easy to use and innovative.

See an EnergyWise enabled power distribution unit and other products in the EnergyWise Pavilion.  The Cyber Switching team has a long history working with Cisco.  Ask about their EnergyWise enabled Plug in Electric Vehicle charging station…  learn more at www.cyberswitching.com

Eaton:  1846:  Eaton, a diversified power management company, has been providing energy-efficient solutions that help our customers effectively manage power for over 100 years. Our highly efficient UPSs support data centers large and small and our innovative software solutions enable IT managers to manage and monitor their environment, both physical and virtual. Our managed PDUs are Cisco EnergyWise certified and our portfolio of products includes racks, enclosures, airflow management and in-row cooling solutions.  Learn more at www.eaton.com/epdu

           
FieldServer, 2906.  A FieldServer representative will support demos in the Technical Solutions Clinic.  They have a unique offering that allows customers to translate legacy building protocols to or from Cisco EnergyWise.  Learn more at www.fieldserver.com

Graybar:  630.  Graybar has specialized in supply chain management services and distribution of high-quality components, equipment and materials for the electrical and telecommunications industries for over 80 years.  Stop by the booth and discuss how Graybar can help you construct an intelligent building using Cisco EnergyWise enabled products.  The secret to Graybar’s success is their ability to monitor technology trends and help customers through significant product and solution transitions.  After you speak with the team, I’m sure you’ll understand why they’re a leader in the industry.

http://www.graybar.com/applications/intelligent-buildings

Industry Weapon:  Various locations and 2776, the EnergyWise-UPoE Pavilion.   Industry Weapon’s software is used for streaming media content throughout the show.  The IW team will be wandering the WOS answering questions.  Industry Weapon's CommandCenterHD platform provides digital media administrators with a centralized content creation, management, and distribution system.  Learn more at www.industryweapon.com

JouleX:  1746 and 2776:  JouleX is the leading innovator in enterprise energy management systems. The JouleX Energy Manager (JEM), provides Global 2000 and government agencies the ability to monitor, analyze and manage all network-connected devices and systems across the enterprise including the distributed office network, data centers and facilities. JEM can save enterprises up to 60% of the energy costs and carbon emissions while providing robust energy usage reporting that supports corporate sustainability initiatives and compliance requirements.   Get a first-hand look at the JouleX Energy Management Software.  JouleX built the first application that takes advantage of the full range of EnergyWise functionality.  For more information visit www.joulex.net

NuLEDs:  2776, the EnergyWise-UPoE Pavilion:  NuLEDs is an innovative lighting fixture and controls company.  NuLEDs built the first network powered and controlled color LED fixture.  See their product in action in the EnergyWise Pavilion or the Technical Solutions Clinic.  Learn more at www.nuleds.com

Raritan:  437 and 2776 the EnergyWise-UPoE Pavilion:  Raritan is a proven innovator of power management, infrastructure management, KVM and serial solutions for data centers of all sizes. In hundreds of corporations worldwide, our hardware and software solutions provide facilities and IT managers with the control they need to increase power management efficiency and improve data center productivity.  Take a closer look at the EnergyWise enabled PDU.  To learn more visit, www.raritan.com

Server Tech:   634:    Server Technology’s experts produce the highest quality rack-mount power distribution and monitoring solutions that manage power capacity, reduce downtime and improve energy efficiency. Server Technology’s extensive selection of Sentry CDUs is 100% performance tested for reliability and accuracy and is adaptable, enabling quick delivery of solutions that meet customer-specific requirements.  To discuss EnergyWise enabled products, visit their booth or learn more online at www.Servertech.com

Schneider Electric: 1435 and 2776, the EnergyWise-UPoE Pavilion: Schneider Electric's motto is "Make the Most of Your Energy".  As an original EnergyWise launch partner and global supplier of electrical products from UPSs, PDUs, to switch gear and more, visit Schneider Electric to learn how the facility and IT worlds are converging.  They will also have a unique EnergyWise demo.  To learn more visit http://www.apc.com/site/apc/index.cfm/ww/

Verdiem:  2776 the EnergyWise-UPoE Pavilion:  Verdiem delivered the first IT Energy Management solution for Cisco EnergyWise. Verdiem enables customers to centrally control and reduce the energy used by PCs, Macs, and EnergyWise-enabled devices such as IP phones by up to 60 percent. Customers achieve the quickest ROI – 6 months or less – at the lowest TCO.  Stop in for a look at PC power management tools.  To learn more, visit, www.verdiem.com

WTI:  524:  WTI products provide Out of Band console port access and remote power reboot & metering for Cisco routers and switches. WTI is a leading designer and manufacturer of console servers and smart pdu solutions for networks at local and remote sites. WTI devices are included in the Cisco Borderless Network Portfolio and compatible with Cisco EnergyWise.  Take a closer look at the EnergyWise enabled PDU.  For more information, visit www.wti.com

On Saturday, October 15^th, 2011, I plan to visit with several innovators involved in renewable energy, hydrogen storage and hydrogen powered transportation.  Chris McWhinney, CEO of Millennium Reign Energy, is hosting an open house at the Dull family homestead in Brookville, OH.  The Dull family will provide the renewable energy (from wind and solar).  Chris will provide the hydrogen (with his generator and fueling station).  General Motors will provide the car.

I’m especially looking forward to lunch cooked on a hydrogen grill!

If you’re in the area, join us from 10 to 3 PM EST.  Rides are offered from 10 am till noon. 12:15 pm select speakers from GM and MRE will discuss the technology and a future with hydrogen. Rides will resume 1:00 pm till about 2:30.

The Dull Homestead is located at 10404 National Rd., Brookville, Ohio 45309

http://residentialhydrogenpower.com/

http://residentialhydrogenpower.com/2011/03/29/energy-center-dull-homestead/

Are you looking for a vision for the way in which the smart grid, smart loads, renewables and electric/hydrogen transportation could evolve and impact our global economic, social and political structure?

Thinker, Futurist, Economist and Author, Jeremy Rifkin will open the Frankfurt Motor Show with Daimler’s Chairmen.

Daimler is unveiling a hydrogen powered car; I think the future of electric-auto transport is hydrogen.  I’ve personally run a generator and a GM pickup truck with hydrogen…  (I’ll blog about it soon).

See his 2:30 video clip for an overview of the Third Industrial Revolution.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEHiwzW02K0

By the way, Cisco CEO, John Chamber’s provided a supporting quote for Rifkin’s new book.  You can pre order on Amazon.  I've read the book; I’ll post a review on my blog in the next week or so.

http://www.amazon.com/Third-Industrial-Revolution-Lateral-Transforming/dp/0230115217/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1315940276&sr=1-1

In the past several years, electricity consumers across the US have learned to expect regular large price increases.  Many of these can be attributed to rising input costs of coal, plant maintenance and construction costs.  In the near term, consumers can expect the rate of cost increases to grow more rapidly due to new emissions requirements on coal generation stations.  After examining the impact that new US EPA requirements will have on their operations, American Electric Power (AEP) recently announced that they expect electricity prices to rise 40~60% over the next several years.  Despite the price increases of the recent past, I think consumers still expect low and stable energy bills.  That said, I think the near term massive price increases will have a profound impact on future consumption.

New incremental price increases will come from large capital improvement projects needed to reduce emissions.  These new fixed costs will be passed on to energy consumers.  Regardless of the amount of electricity demanded, these costs will be recovered.  I haven’t studied the capital vs operating expense models in detail, but I expect these new emission mandates to have a large impact on electric bills.  Even though electricity demand is elastic and follows the basic economic rules of supply and demand (as the price of electricity rises, demand will fall), these added expenses will probably increase faster than consumers can reduce demand (time will tell).  On balance, I expect that consumers will see a net increase in electric bills.

In short, consumers will pay more for less.  As a result, both businesses and home owners will become more aware of their energy use and they will seek conservation and alternative energy supply solutions.

For more information, visit:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/276644-coal-generators-and-the-epa-power-struggle-will-consumers-foot-the-electric-bills or http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-06-11/business/ct-biz-0612-rates-20110611_1_generators-electricity-illinois-power-agency

As businesses and consumers seek solutions to reduce their energy spend, they will explore active technologies to improve utilization.  Fortunately, the building controls and Information, Communication Technology vendors are beginning to build products that will interoperate effectively to give customers a way to convert their existing building stock into “Buildings as Power Plants” (see Jeremy Rifkin’s essay on the Third Industrial Revolution  http://www.foet.org/lectures/lecture-hydrogen-economy.html ).  More importantly, these technologies and operating techniques will enable customers to run “net-zero” buildings as a standard operating practice.  This requires active energy management of electricity consuming and generating systems.

Put another way, this means that all building sub systems must work together to ensure energy demand is balanced with available energy supply.  Available energy can be electric, thermal, potential or kinetic.  To know what mix is required, a building’s energy management supervisor (for the sake of this piece, I assume the building energy supervisor is a computer program) must know current weather conditions, building envelope thermal performance, energy demand, and energy available at a given price and volume.

From a building energy supervisor’s perspective, it needs to know how much sun light hits the building and what impact solar loading will have.  The supervisor must know all the available onsite generation, storage and their costs, capacities and operating state.  

Possible onsite energy options include:

1. wind-electric
2. solar-electric
3. solar-electric hydrogen generator
4. solar-thermal
5. micro-hydro
6. geo-thermal
7. ice-storage
8. motor-generator
9. battery storage
10. wood/biomass boiler
11. propane/gas/diesel/hydrogen/biomass generator
12. air-source heat-pump
13. fuel cell
14. electric vehicle with an IC motor or battery
15. electric vehicle with a hydrogen powered fuel cell electric generator (can this be used for the building’s energy needs?)
16. grid connected transformer
17. etc…

As you can see, there are a lot of onsite energy generation options.  They must be understood by the site energy management supervisor.  When they’re understood, it’s possible to build automated policies.

The building energy management supervisor must also have deep insight into the energy demands of the facility.  It must know who and what uses electricity, when it is used, how important it is and other attributes that the customer might want to assign to a device.

Automated control policies work better with granular energy consumption insight.

The point to all of this is to help customers understand when and where energy is used to ensure it’s all used effectively at the least cost to the business or homeowner.  As energy prices rise, the return on investment for automated control solutions and onsite renewable energy generators will improve making them more accessible to customers.  In a future post, I’ll discuss the way in which Cisco EnergyWise and nearly 100 technology partners are developing solutions that provide granular insight.

I just got off the phone with my teammate, Luis Suau.  He called to tell me that in the past several days he turned up several PC’s with energy management software from 1e (http://www.1e.com/) and his Field Server  (http://www.fieldserver.com/) gateway is able to use an existing BACnet application to control Cisco EnergyWise enabled end points. 

As we approach our demonstration date of July 11^th, 2011, we’re wrapping up a few modifications in the “Innervated Building” lab.  For Cisco Live, I expect we’ll be able to demonstrate more than just the Innervated Building Services, Phase I: Measurement and Visibility.

The objective of Phase I:  Measurement and Visibility is to show just that.  We set out to use over a dozen new beta products from Cisco EnergyWise partners to demonstrate how customers can leverage Cisco EnergyWise to initiate a quick and simple solution that measures and reports real-time whole building energy consumption while making results visible to all building tenants.   Phase I is about getting the infrastructure in place to create energy literacy, save money, and demonstrate the role of IT network engineers in creating sustainability programs.  Moreover, it establishes a baseline from which to launch additional sustainability enhancements.

At Cisco Live we’re prepared to show customers how they can collect energy use information from the building power entrance facility and project the relevant information to existing Cisco Digital Media Signage.  Throughout this process, we’ve had the great fortune to brainstorm new solutions with over 30 of Cisco’s development partners.  Many of these will demonstrate their products and Cisco EnergyWise related solutions at Cisco Live.

So, how do you Innervate a Building with ICT?  Stay tuned and follow us at Cisco Live http://www.ciscolive.com/us/

The mill at Spring Mill State Park, Indiana.  Click on the image for the full shot.

The EIA Announcement

I was surprised by recent news from the US Energy Information Agency.  On April 28^th, 2011 the EIA announced that it would terminate a number of important projects due to funding cuts.  Specifically, the press release states the EIA will:

• “Suspend work on EIA's 2011 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS), the Nation's only source of statistical data for energy consumption and related characteristics of commercial buildings.

• Terminate updates to EIA's International Energy      Statistics.”

http://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press362.cfm

This news is significant.  These reports (and many others) provide important information about how our facilities are functioning.  More importantly, the international energy statistics provide an early warning of impending energy challenges.  The first metaphor that enters my mind to explain this action is that it’s a bit like disconnecting the temperature sensor from your radiator while your car is overheating.  But that’s really just linear thinking.  The trouble ahead can’t be solved by calling AAA road side assistance.

This announcement means that we’re discontinuing data collection and reporting about some of our economy’s most important metrics.  Right now US energy consumers need more information—not less.  Energy is economic oxygen:  renewed awareness of the intersection of energy and economics will drive dramatic change.  I’ll explain.

Catabolic-Collapse

The world has been undergoing catabolic-collapse since the start of the Industrial Revolution (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution).  Catabolic-collapse describes the process of using stored excess energy for current output or consumption.  From Webster’s online, catabolism is a “degradative metabolism” where the body consumes tissue to produce energy while breaking down proteins and lipids.

The energy we’ve consumed over the past 200 years represents millions of year’s worth of solar energy trapped in the earth’s crust.  Catabolic-collapse of the world’s Carbon based fuels is not a bad thing as long as we have an energy transition plan and can mitigate pollution bi-products.  The catabolic-collapse has had a profound and positive impact on humans.  It has enabled the development and ongoing support for our food production, education, entertainment, medicine, travel and the internet to list a few examples.  But when that energy is gone (or too expensive or difficult to reach) we must find a substitute or our economy will shrink dramatically.   (As a side note it’s not clear to me what the most important climate change driver might be, but it would be a stretch to dismiss our annual consumption of a cubic mile of crude oil as a factor.  I think climate change is a  byproduct of a complex multi-variable feedback loop.)

We must develop a sustainable energy-econony plan.  Success requires us to know where we are and figure out where we need to go.  We need to know what sustainable looks like.  Most of us don’t know how large our own carbon foot print is (me included).

History Lessons

Reviewing history to find a model path forward is only somewhat instructive because there aren’t any models for what we face today.  Well in truth, there aren’t any with a happy ending.  That said, I’m optimistic that we have the time, wealth, energy and intelligence to unlock another “Industrial Revolution” powered by renewable energy and technology that combine to raise our standard of living to a new high   Getting this wrong leads us to a very dark future.  Looking at our current energy policy and the recent invasion of light-sweet-crude-rich- Libya, I think we are still on the wrong path.  A positive future outcome is still possible but great care is required.   Even if elected governments officials fail to imagine an alternative path, distributed energy solutions only require distributed participation.  So I have reason for hope.

Looking back to the early 1800’s at the start of the Industrial Revolution takes us to Western England.  At that time the Midlands was home to numerous textile mills and small iron foundries.  They were located there to transform low value raw materials into high value finished goods.  This is the point in history where coal was extracted and used to transform manual labor into large scale mechanized production.  After the water and agricultural innovations introduced several thousand years previously, the industrial revolution represents the greatest period of energy and technology coupling to drive innovation; it materially improved human life.

Numerous technologies were invented and adapted to solve problems for local businesses.  The area saw the first wide scale use of canals to move coal from mine to industrial consumer.  Coal fired steam engines were developed to pump water out of flooded coal mines—thus dramatically increasing constrained supplies.  The steam engine was soon adapted for locomotion on metal rails. It was easier, faster and cheaper to build a railroad on the side of a hill and across valleys than to build a canal.

Interesting to note, the region was home to the first sunk post windmill erected in 1185 (Weedley, Yorkshire, England).  (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_mill)  So the region that kicked off the current energy innovation super-cycle based on carbon energy actually evolved from solar based renewables.  The transition to carbon fuels simply explains that someone with a problem found a good solution based on a nearby resource--they took advantage of what was available.  This transition marked the beginning of the current carbon fuel catabolic-collapse cycle.

Where We Are Today

Fast forward to 2011 and we see that we’re still extracting coal and crude oil from the ground in order to harvest raw materials, transform them and transport them to market for consumption.  “Green” is something marketing and PR people talk about and net zero buildings are one-off science projects.  Despite gasoline at $4.50 USD per gallon, carbon based energy is still oxygen for our food production, education, entertainment, medicine, travel and the internet.

At what price do we shut off devices, processes and activities?  We have yet to decide what is most important.  We will also witness the widespread awareness of the nexus between energy and economics.  We have reached the moment in time when the “Ozzie and Harriet” American suburban lifestyle adapts peacefully or is forced to change.  Without distributed, local, renewable consumer owned energy sources, it’s no longer cost effective for consumers to live in carbon fuel intensive automobile based suburban tract homes.  Maybe electric or Hydrogen vehicles are the answer—or maybe not.  Right now the technology evolution roadmap has more axle breaking potholes than super highways to sustainable prosperity.  Before we explore the economics of distributed renewable energy, we need to dig into economics.

During the 1990’s, in the US, the price of energy remained relatively stable.  A gallon of gasoline was about $1-1.25.  For the past 10 years, the price of gas has steadily risen from $1.50-4.50 per gallon.  This has caused the price of everything to rise—in dollar terms (the dollar is the numerare).  Regardless of whether the price of crude oil is rising due to shortages, increased demand or through central banker’s currency debasement, the impact is the same (I think all three play a role).

So now energy consumers have three new and bigger reasons to start exploring the use of renewable energy to power their operations and lives.  To restate, energy prices will continue to rise due to three mega trends:  1. Inexpensive easy to reach supplies have diminished; 2. Demand from the world’s emerging middle class is rising; 3.  Central bankers will continue to debase fiat currencies.  These trends will conspire to improve the ROI of conservation and renewable energy projects years into the future.  If a project doesn’t meet your organization’s hurdle rate today, reexamine it in 12 months…

The Nexus of Energy and Economics

Energy is the foundation of wealth; energy is currency.  JP Morgan is claimed to have remarked that “gold and silver are money, everything else is credit”.  I won’t argue much with that, but gold and silver require energy to extract, process and transport (from ore bodies to bullion).  Energy is often a necessary condition in the formula for wealth creation.  Though energy is not well suited as money, it is a valuable commodity.  While a tank of propane might be valuable, it’s not convenient…  Similarly, paper fiat currency is convenient but is a poor store of value.  Paper money is how employees and employers save their energy—or the effort of their labor.

Businesses use currency to purchase employee labor, energy, raw materials and other capital stock or services.  Both end consumers and employees use their earned currency to purchase food, education, entertainment, medicine, travel and internet access.  Currency is used to purchase energy intensive goods and services.

Some of these purchases include goods that contain a tremendous amount of embodied energy.  A personal automobile requires large scale mining to extract the basic ingredients.  The manufacturing plant requires large amounts of electricity to transform steel, aluminum and plastics throughout the assembly process.  Paper currency has become the modern way to store energy.

If we look back 200 years, we see that the currency of America’s agrarian settlers included livestock, apples, wheat, whiskey, blankets, firewood, and Spanish silver and many other trade goods.  Only one of those examples is sound money, the rest are hard assets, although some of these fare better than others when measured against the 5 attributes of money.  1.  A store of value; 2.  Durable;  3. Divisible;  4. Consistent (around the globe);  5.  Convenient.

Sound money and hard assets provide a good way to save.  Fiat currency does not.  Many people save the output of their labor (human energy) in the form of Federal Reserve notes or US Treasury bonds.   I know many people believe these notes can store value—in the same way a battery stores electrons. Aside from being a useful metaphor, the comparison is very poor.  Assuming you have the perfect battery, it will efficiently store every electron that you put in it.

Unfortunately for money savers, money is not wealth.  It’s a commodity used as a medium of exchange and the US Federal Reserve has been openly monetizing treasury bonds for over a year.  This means that the Federal Reserve is printing more money.  Since the number of things we need hasn’t changed, but the money supply has grown, it now takes significantly more money to buy the things we use—including energy.  Since central banks have recently redoubled their efforts to debase their currencies, we will witness recognition of this fact by many more people.  As people watch the purchasing power of their money erode they will seek ways to preserve their existing quality of life.   We will see resurgence in gardening and hobby farming because food is energy and energy is currency.  But this is a small scale, individual response.  The world still needs a massive large scale “human project”.

To understand where we are and to know when we arrive at the destination, we need to create large scale comprehensive energy monitoring and control solutions to ensure consumers, businesses, utilities and governments have solutions that can meet their needs.  These projects all require system instrumentation, meaningful dashboards and a complete reengineering of our economy to run on sustainable energy.  That means we need to develop an energy plan that maximizes the capture, conversion and storage of solar energy.  Solar is primary energy.  It’s what hits the Earth first.  Some long wave solar radiation is converted to heat on the ground.  The heat warms the air and creates wind.  We need a new set of metrics for measuring this energy-economic revolution.

Existing Economic Metrics Offer a Cautionary Tale

As we consider new metrics and tools for energy, we must ensure they’re meaningful.  If we examine existing economic data for a moment, you’ll see that, though interesting, it isn’t always useful.   Today’s media tends to examine global health through the lens of national GDP (Gross Domestic Product).  GDP is a measure of a country’s flow of spending.  It is not a measure of prosperity, efficiency or capital stock.  It’s simply a count.  It’s a count of all consumer, business and government spending plus net of exports (exports-imports).  So if government spends more, it’s GDP positive.  If companies accumulate excess inventory, it’s also GDP positive.  Other common Tier I economic indicators include the labor participation rate, unemployment, new home starts, existing home sales, and hours worked to list a few, these metrics are not very meaningful as a measure of prosperity or sustainability.  For that perspective, many experts point to the CPI (Consumer Price Index).  They use it as a barometer of consumer health and spending power.  But this too is a mistake.  The measure is fatally flawed because it excludes food and energy and uses hedonics for other ridiculous adjustments that don’t translate to the real world.

Energy metrics should be simple and answer the question whether the organization is operating in a sustainable way.   The building controls and communication equipment industries will work with innovative customers to define these new meaningful dashboards and metrics.

Conclusion

Before continuous debt monetization destroys our currency we must use the remaining value to transition to a new energy-economic Industrial Revolution.  We will see an energy revolution because the existing model is in decline and energy is still economic oxygen.

The purpose of this series to share my experiences and challenges while converting an existing home to net-zero.  Hopefully we can exchange lessons learned in order to reduce the process complexity for others and to ensure vendors who build systems gain better insight into the customer experience.  This post is intended to describe the the starting point for the home. I'll cover utility bills, performance and active systems in a future post.  After that I'll move to a potential plan that includes my thought process...

Background

Several years ago my wife and I decided to relocate from the San Francisco Bay Area to a rural property near a Big 10 College town.  During the home search process, we decided that the most effective way to meet our needs was to buy bare land and build a home from scratch.  I was determined to build a home that was comfortable, spacious and cheap to operate—because, well, I’m cheap (why spend more than necessary?).  Given that we planned to keep the home for multiple decades it was imperative to create a design that would keep operating expenses as low as possible.   We didn’t set out to build a green home and we definatley didn’t set out to make it net-zero.  After spending several years on  energy management solutions for Cisco and while working with technology  partners and customers on smart-grid standards I concluded that net-zero  is not only achievable for a reasonable price, it’s also necessary  given future constraints on energy supplies and growing demand—both will  drive prices significantly higher.

       Before proceeding, I’ll also address two questions I frequently hear:

1.

       1.  “Why did you leave Silicon Valley?”  We like the seasons and we wanted our children to have a closer connection to nature than they otherwise could living in the suburbs.   It didn’t hurt that the home site we purchased was a few acres and cost less than many 3 bedroom homes in Palo Alto.

       2.  “Is it difficult to work remote?”  No.  Working remote has a few disadvantages, but the advantages are great (no  commute, limited interruptions, flexible work hours).  Working for Cisco, a global communication technology company, makes it easy to connect with the right people, teams and partners at the right times.   It takes a little more effort to be effective, but there are fewer distractions.   I sometimes miss out on important “water cooler” discussions, but that just forces me to regularly contact a variety of people to “check in”.  Given the nature of my work and the size of the main campus in San Jose most of my meetings were over the phone.  Maybe 10% were in person.   I spent about half my time travelling.  So transitioning from a Cisco office to tele-work was easy.  I think I’m even more effective now and I have a much higher quality of life.

The Original Design Process

Returning to the discussion about the home, given my long investment horizon, I wanted to ensure it served our needs while making its operations as affordable as possible.  My wife and I began using PunchPro software to simulate a few design concepts.  We originally planned to use an architect, but after designing a number of CAD models, it was simply easier and faster to make adjustments ourselves.  We had a good family friend (who designs museums—but that’s another story) help us a number of times.  We even leveraged his skills, time and studio to construct a large scale model.  The model allowed us to move physical avatars through the rooms while simulating sunlight with a flashlight (while looking in the windows…).  We hired a local designer to create a final set of blueprints.

During the design phase I read a number of articles and books on passive solar homes.  This provided some invaluable insight into the benefits of passive thermal designs. By coupling these design principles with the US EPA EnergyStar home program we were able to build a large home while keeping the energy bills below $150 USD per month (and we heat and cool 24/7 to any temperature we want).  Most comparably sized homes in our area would consume $500~700 per month in utility expenses.  If I ever build another home, I would use this approach again.  Where EnergyStar falls short is in the ongoing commissioning of active systems (HVAC, lighting, appliances etc).  But this is actually a problem for all home and commercial building vendors today.  There is no standard that enables real-time simple, accessible, affordable reporting.  Existing solutions require large amounts of money and custom software…

Our design goals:

1. Orient the home around the kitchen/great room
2. Design for the sun and seasons (Maximize free light, shading and ground thermal storage)
3. Maximize comfort
4. Minimize energy use
5. Maximize local materials and build for long life
6. Heat with wood
7. Control with off-the-shelf products—convert later…
8. Architecturally speaking, the home should blend in…

As we progress from here to a net-zero home, I’ll share more about the control systems and challenge.  If you have ideas that can improve the outcome, please share.

Recommended Reading

1.  For solar home design I recommend Dan Chiras’s work.

          http://www.amazon.com/Solar-House-Passive-Heating-Cooling/dp/1931498121/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&         s=books&qid=1302017363&sr=8-1

2.  For home design CAD software, see PunchPro Software:  http://www.punchsoftware.com/

3.  The EPA EnergyStar Home Program is here:  http://www.energystar.gov/

The image above is from the NASA image library (http://grcimagenet.grc.nasa.gov/GRCDigitalImages/1995/1995_02395L.jpg)

Planet Earth seeks innovators with hardware and software products that improve energy efficiency of industrial sites, buildings, data centers, homes and transportation systems while using safe, non-polluting energy sources.

One of the most memorable want ads I’ve seen was in David Crane’s biography about Arctic explorer, Captain Robert Scott.  The ad was written several years after Scott died while trying to return from the South Pole.  Explorer Ernest Shakelton, one of Scott’s former officers, wrote in December, 1913:   “Men wanted for hazardous journey.  Small wages, bitter cold, long months of complete darkness, constant danger, safe return doubtful.  Honour and recognition in case of success.”

Like Captain Scott before him, Shakelton asked for volunteers to join him on adventure.  They all knew the risks.  Captain Scott’s biography is a study in the hubris of planning and the very human struggle to grapple with linear thinking; unfortunately, the world’s natural systems are not linear—making predictions impossible.

Humans do know how to plan events, but the more variables and longer the time horizon the more opportunities exist for errors.  These can compound over time with severe consequences.  Captain Scott’s last expedition to the South Pole is well documented; it illustrates human shortcomings and a belief that we can plan for all contingencies.  Scott believed that he could model the future with accuracy.  Capt Scott didn’t fully recognize what he didn’t know.  To his credit, and as a result of several previous expeditions, Captain Scott had in depth first-hand knowledge of the Antarctic—and he prepared for years.  But he ended up dying because the Antarctic weather encountered was marginally worse than expected—a black swan didn’t kill him.  He died from a 100 small errors.  He was human.  Fortunately, his accumulated failures didn’t kill thousands of other people.  He made a choice.  And he understood the risks.

I can’t help but think that the recent examination of nuclear safety provides similar lessons.  While attending several conferences last week I heard a number of people talk about predictive models.  Specifically they discussed the models that suggested that a nuclear plant in Japan could withstand a large earth quake.  I saw a lot of intelligent people shake their heads in disbelief that the models were wrong.

Yet the fact that the world was hit by a 9.1 that triggered a large tsunami in 2004 is down played.  Let me say it again.  In 2004, South East Asia was rocked by a 9.1.  Japan sits on a known and very active tectonic intersection (so does California).  It is irresponsible to think that a 9.0 won’t happen again somewhere in the world.

Even my 2^nd grader understands plate tectonics and he knows the continents were congealed in a super landmass called Pangaea.   He knows that this land mass fractured and moved—and still does.  The geologic record and recorded human observations of recent (the past 300 years) earthquakes and volcanism demonstrates that these events are irregular and violent.  The dynamism of continental plates is hidden by long periods of statis followed by a short burst of geologic violence.

Why do humans continue to stare at models seeking answers?  Does the action comfort us?  Do we allay our fears by updating the model with the latest observation—thus enabling us to call all clear?  I don’t know.   It’s as if we shed fear by locking it in a mathematical model.

I’ve observed that many experts are more comfortable examining the model than reality—probably because reality is non-linear.  When fear becomes non-linear, it’s a whole other magnitude of bad.  I’m not a social scientist so I’m not sure what this says about us—maybe it’s more comfortable to look the other way.  I prefer to deal with reality—even if it’s non-linear.

We need an energy revolution that unlocks safe energy.  I understand that nuclear is safe in theory.  But don’t we have enough existence proofs to show that theory and practice conflict?   I don’t think the disaster in Fukushima is the end of the world.   But thinking non-linearly, can our DNA handle 5 more events like this?  Is that possible over the next 50 years?   What about 100 years?   Could the Pacific rim get hit with a 10.0?  A few hundred years ago (a virtually blink of the eye in geologic time), the Pacific rim was struck by a 100 foot high tsunami.  What if that occurs in 10 years?  How many Chernobyl and Fukushima radioactive disasters are required to poison the planet to the point that prevents human reproduction?   (for a real-time crowd sourced radiation map of Japan, go here:  http://community.pachube.com/node/611#3d ) .  No one knows.  Given the political and monetary incentives to preserve nuclear power, I’m confident the models will grossly understate the risks.  This is the reason there is tragedy in the “Tragedy of the Commons”.  Unfortunately for my children and grand children, they don’t have a vote.  We need to speak for them.

I hope we are not living through the pinnacle of human civilization.  But if we don’t adjust our energy policy rapidly, we’re a Black Swan event away from the top.  Don’t be fooled by models.  Everyone who creates them is biased.  Like Captain Scott, even without a Black Swan event we’re 100 small errors away from disaster.  Unlike Captain Scott, we are playing with Pandora’s box—the downside risk has global and catastrophic consequences.  I don’t know how much background radiation must rise to stop our advance—but I’m sure it’s a lot less than the models indicate.  The great Yogi Berra once quipped, “"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is."  We need a Manhattan project for clean energy—maybe call it the “Human Project”.  Not to be alarmist, but if you pause and consider some non-linear events, you will quickly recognize the fragility of our life support systems.  After kicking off the “Human Project”, we need a fast transition plan that neuters nuclear fuel.  If my grand children could speak, I’m confident that’s what they’d say.

For more reading, check out the following:

1.    1.  For a deep thinking overview of the nuclear power industry in Japan, see William Banzai’s introduction to an interview with Japanese author and activist, Hirose Takashi.  http://www.zerohedge.com/article/absolute-power-corrupts

2.    2.  For an indepth look at non-linear thinking, see Nassim Taleb’s “Black Swan”.  http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1301571497&sr=1-1

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3.    3.  To understand model complexity and the outsized role small variables can have on models, see James Gleick’s, “Chaos” http://www.amazon.com/Chaos-Making-Science-James-Gleick/dp/0140092501/ref=sr_1_12?ie=UTF8&qid=1301571366&sr=8-12

4.    4.  To understand how and why societies collapse and the role of “Tragedy of the Commons,” check out Jared Diamond’s, “Collapse”.  http://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Societies-Choose-Succeed-Revised/dp/0143117009/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1301571531&sr=1-1

5.    5. For a look at how even small missteps can have fatal consequences even when working with linear models, see David Crane’s, “Scott of the Antarctic”.  http://www.amazon.com/Scott-Antarctic-Biography-David-Crane/dp/1400031419/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1301571592&sr=1-1

6.    6. If you want to imagine the future of energy and economic development, read Thomas Friedman’s, “Hot, Flat and Crowded”.  http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_ss_i_1_39?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=hot+flat+and+crowded+by+thomas+friedman&sprefix=hot+flat+and+crowded+by+thomas+friedman

7.

Fo   7.  For an in-depth examination of Hydrogen, read Jeff Holland and James Provenzano’s “The Hydrogen Age”.  http://www.amazon.com/Hydrogen-Age-Empowering-Clean-Energy-Future/dp/158685786X/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1301571677&sr=1-1

8.    8.  For an over arching review of the way in which the world could look if we act quickly, read Jeremy Rifkin’s Paper on “The Third Industrial Revolution”.  http://www.foet.org/lectures/lecture-hydrogen-economy.html

       9.  If you want to know why oil is getting so expensive and understand that the price rise has only just begun, see Matt Simmon’s “Twilight in the Dessert.”  www.amazon.com/Twilight-Desert-Coming-Saudi-Economy/dp/0471790184/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1301572072&sr=8-1

10.   10.  If all of this doesn’t alarm you, please resume planning your week with TV Guide.  http://www.tvguide.com/